教育研究中的因果关系推断——相关方法原理与实例应用

doi:10.16382/j.cnki.1000-5560.2017.04.001

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 近二十年来，因果关系推断方法快速发展成熟，并逐渐占据微观计量方法领域的主流地位。本文首先对因果关系推断方法兴起的背景进行了介绍；其次，探讨了判定因果关系需满足的三个条件，对在实验数据和非实验（观测）数据条件下进行因果判定的主要困难，以及观测数据研究中异质性残值的产生原因与构成进行了剖析；其三，借助小班化教学与"新机制"改革效果评价的实际案例，依次阐述了断点回归、工具变量、倾向得分结合倍差等准实验研究方法的基本原理与实现过程；最后，对准实验研究所面临的内部有效性质疑进行了回应，强调对选用方法背后隐含假设进行稳健性检验的重要性。

关键词: 因果推断, 教育研究, 准实验, 异质性残值, 内部有效性

Abstract: In the past twenty years, causal inference has developed rapidly and gradually dominated the field of micrometrics. The paper first introduces the context of the emerging causal inference methods. Next, we discuss three preconditions to reach a causal conclusion, point out the major problems with making causal inference in the experimental and non experimental studies, and analyze the main causes and components of heterogeneous residual that commonly exist in the observation studies. Then, using cases of impact evaluation of small class teaching and new mechanism reform, the paper illustrates the basic principles and analyzes procedures of some quasi experimental methods, including regression discontinuity, instrumental variable, propensity score method and double difference. Finally, in response to the doubts about the internal validity of quasi experimental studies, we emphasize the importance of robustness and sensitivity test of the implicit hypothesis that hide behind quasi experimental methods.

Key words: causal inference, educational research, quasi experiment, heterogeneous residual, internal validity

黄斌, 方超, 汪栋. 教育研究中的因果关系推断——相关方法原理与实例应用[J]. 华东师范大学学报(教育科学版), 2017, 35(4): 1-14+134.

HUANG Bin, FANG Chao, WANG Dong. Causal Inference in Education Research: Principles and Applications of Related Methods[J]. Journal of East China Normal University(Educationa, 2017, 35(4): 1-14+134.

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