Abstract:

Leslie matrix was used to establish a population prediction model. Based on the census data and a sampling survey of fertility intention, the population of urban and rural permanent residents of preschool education and the size of children in kindergartens, as well as the size of kindergartens, teachers, and total expenditure on preschool education in 2021-2050 were predicted. The results show that by 2035, after raising resource allocation standards, compared with 2020, 40,700 kindergartens will be built, while 1,0755,500 full-time teachers will be added and 909,200 child-care workers will be added, with an additional total expenditure of 365.211 billion yuan for preschool education. It is suggested to dynamically monitor the changes of school-aged population, scientifically distribute preschool education resources in advance, timely revise and adjust the supporting enrollment spaces of the residential population in urban and rural communities based on the consideration of urbanization process, rural revitalization strategy, COVID-19, implementation of the three-child policy and local realities, carry out follow-up inspection on the governance of supporting gardens in urban communities, construct supporting kindergartens in strict accordance with the standards, set up public kindergartens in remote rural areas where it is difficult to run kindergartens, explore the system of overall planning and adjustment of staffing to alleviate the pressure of shortage of preschool staffing, implement equal pay for equal work for irregular teachers, increase the teachers’ subsidies for working years, and strengthen provincial and municipal overall planning and improve the level of subjects guaranteeing financial investment in preschool education.

Key words: three-child policy, preschool education, urban and rural resource allocation, population prediction