Abstract:

Since its implementation, the mathematics-based exceptional admission policy under the Strengthening Basic Disciplines Plan has attracted considerable public attention, yet empirical evidence evaluating its policy rationality and practical effectiveness remains scarce. Drawing on administrative data from ten cohorts of undergraduate students at a pilot university participating in the Strong Foundation Plan, this study examines the predictive validity of College Entrance Examination (Gaokao) mathematics scores for students’ undergraduate developmental outcomes, with particular attention to disciplinary heterogeneity. The findings indicate that Gaokao mathematics scores significantly predict the likelihood of becoming “high-achieving students” and “sustained high-performing students,” but exhibit limited effectiveness in identifying “top-tier students.” The predictive effects of mathematics scores vary across disciplines. Specifically, mathematics scores significantly predict high-achieving students in science and engineering majors, and also significantly predict whether high-achieving students in science and humanities fields develop into sustained high-performing students. Moreover, the predictive effect of mathematics scores demonstrates a threshold pattern. Students scoring above 130 are more likely to become high-achieving and sustained high-performing students; scores above 140 show stronger predictive power for identifying high-achieving students; and scores above 145 exhibit the strongest predictive validity for sustained high-performing students. These threshold effects exhibits significant disciplinary heterogeneity. Overall, the effectiveness of the mathematics-based exceptional admission policy provides empirical evidence to inform the optimization of selection mechanisms for cultivating outstanding innovative talent in foundational disciplines.

Key words: talent selection, Strengthening Basic Disciplines Plan, exceptional admission, Gaokao mathematics score, top innovative talent, scholarships