Journal of East China Normal University(Educational Sciences) ›› 2021, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (6): 1-16.doi: 10.16382/j.cnki.1000-5560.2021.06.001
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Changjun Yue, Wenqi Qiu
Online:
2021-06-20
Published:
2021-05-31
Changjun Yue, Wenqi Qiu. The Scale and Structure of Higher Education and Public Educational Funding in China: An Empirical Prediction till 2035[J]. Journal of East China Normal University(Educational Sciences), 2021, 39(6): 1-16.
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国家分类 | 1970 | 1975 | 1980 | 1985 | 1990 | 1995 | 2000 | 2005 | 2010 | 2015 | 2019 |
世界平均 | 9.7 | 11.1 | 12.4 | 13.4 | 13.6 | 15.5 | 19.1 | 24.3 | 29.6 | 36.8 | 38.8 |
高收入国家 | 23.4 | 29.0 | 32.2 | 35.5 | 40.7 | 50.7 | 55.1 | 65.5 | 72.9 | 75.0 | 75.7 |
中高收入国家 | 6.1 | 7.3 | 8.5 | 9.9 | 9.7 | 11.7 | 17.1 | 26.3 | 32.6 | 48.0 | 53.2 |
中低收入国家 | 6.0 | 6.1 | 6.7 | 7.6 | 7.4 | 7.5 | 10.6 | 12.4 | 17.3 | 22.6 | 24.2 |
低收入国家 | 3.7 | 4.5 | 5.0 | 5.4 | 5.7 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 6.1 | 8.6 | 9.5 | |
中国 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 4.4 | 7.6 | 19.1 | 24.2 | 46.0 | 53.8 |
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年份 | 普通本专科 | 普通本科 | 普通专科 | |||
规模(万人) | 增速(%) | 规模(万人) | 增速(%) | 规模(万人) | 增速(%) | |
1998 | 108 | 65 | 43 | |||
1999 | 160 | 47.3 | 94 | 44.6 | 61 | 41.9 |
2000 | 221 | 38.1 | 172 | 82.9 | 49 | ?20.2 |
2001 | 268 | 21.6 | 202 | 17.3 | 67 | 36.8 |
2002 | 321 | 19.5 | 231 | 14.7 | 89 | 33.8 |
2003 | 382 | 19.3 | 183 | ?21.1 | 200 | 124.0 |
2004 | 447 | 17.0 | 210 | 15.0 | 237 | 18.9 |
2005 | 505 | 12.8 | 236 | 12.6 | 268 | 12.9 |
2006 | 546 | 8.2 | 253 | 7.1 | 293 | 9.3 |
2007 | 566 | 3.6 | 282 | 11.5 | 284 | ?3.1 |
2008 | 608 | 7.4 | 297 | 5.3 | 311 | 9.4 |
2009 | 640 | 5.2 | 326 | 9.8 | 313 | 0.9 |
2010 | 662 | 3.5 | 351 | 7.7 | 311 | ?0.9 |
2011 | 682 | 3.0 | 357 | 1.5 | 325 | 4.6 |
2012 | 689 | 1.1 | 374 | 4.9 | 315 | ?3.1 |
2013 | 700 | 1.6 | 381 | 2.0 | 318 | 1.1 |
2014 | 721 | 3.1 | 383 | 0.5 | 338 | 6.2 |
2015 | 738 | 2.3 | 389 | 1.6 | 348 | 3.1 |
2016 | 749 | 1.5 | 405 | 4.1 | 343 | ?1.5 |
2017 | 762 | 1.7 | 411 | 1.3 | 351 | 2.2 |
2018 | 791 | 3.9 | 422 | 2.8 | 369 | 5.2 |
2019 | 915 | 15.7 | 431 | 2.2 | 484 | 31.1 |
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年份 | GDPPC(美元) | 第二产业(%) | 第三产业(%) | 入学率1(%) | 入学率2(%) | 入学率平均(%) |
2019 | 10262 | 39.0 | 53.9 | 54.1 | 53.4 | 53.7 |
2020 | 10775 | 38.3 | 55.0 | 54.9 | 54.5 | 54.7 |
2021 | 11314 | 37.7 | 56.0 | 55.8 | 55.7 | 55.7 |
2022 | 11879 | 37.1 | 57.1 | 56.6 | 56.9 | 56.8 |
2023 | 12473 | 36.5 | 58.3 | 57.5 | 58.1 | 57.8 |
2024 | 13097 | 35.9 | 59.4 | 58.3 | 59.4 | 58.8 |
2025 | 13752 | 35.3 | 60.6 | 59.2 | 60.7 | 59.9 |
2026 | 14439 | 34.7 | 61.8 | 60.0 | 62.0 | 61.0 |
2027 | 15161 | 34.2 | 63.0 | 60.8 | 63.3 | 62.1 |
2028 | 15919 | 33.6 | 64.2 | 61.7 | 64.7 | 63.2 |
2029 | 16715 | 33.0 | 65.5 | 62.5 | 66.2 | 64.3 |
2030 | 17551 | 32.5 | 66.7 | 63.4 | 67.6 | 65.5 |
2031 | 18429 | 32.0 | 68.1 | 64.2 | 69.1 | 66.7 |
2032 | 19350 | 31.5 | 69.4 | 65.0 | 70.7 | 67.9 |
2033 | 20317 | 30.9 | 70.7 | 65.9 | 72.3 | 69.1 |
2034 | 21333 | 30.4 | 72.1 | 66.7 | 73.9 | 70.3 |
2035 | 22400 | 29.9 | 73.5 | 67.6 | 75.5 | 71.5 |
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年份 | 18—24岁 (万人) | 18岁 (万人) | 招生数1 (万人) | 招生数2 (万人) | 招生数3 (万人) | 入学率1 (%) | 入学率2 (%) | 入学率3 (%) |
2015 | 12849 | 1836 | ||||||
2019 | 11996 | 1714 | 915 | 915 | 915 | 51.6 | 52.0 | 51.6 |
2020 | 11792 | 1685 | 915 | 920 | 924 | 52.9 | 53.2 | 53.5 |
2021 | 11591 | 1656 | 915 | 924 | 933 | 53.9 | 54.4 | 54.9 |
2022 | 11394 | 1628 | 915 | 929 | 943 | 54.8 | 55.6 | 56.4 |
2023 | 11200 | 1600 | 915 | 933 | 952 | 55.7 | 56.9 | 58.0 |
2024 | 11009 | 1573 | 915 | 938 | 962 | 56.7 | 58.1 | 59.6 |
2025 | 10822 | 1546 | 915 | 943 | 971 | 57.7 | 59.4 | 61.2 |
2026 | 10638 | 1520 | 915 | 948 | 981 | 58.7 | 60.8 | 62.9 |
2027 | 10457 | 1494 | 915 | 952 | 991 | 59.7 | 62.1 | 64.6 |
2028 | 10279 | 1468 | 915 | 957 | 1001 | 60.7 | 63.5 | 66.4 |
2029 | 10104 | 1443 | 915 | 962 | 1011 | 61.8 | 64.9 | 68.2 |
2030 | 9932 | 1419 | 915 | 967 | 1021 | 62.8 | 66.4 | 70.1 |
2031 | 9763 | 1395 | 915 | 971 | 1031 | 63.9 | 67.9 | 72.0 |
2032 | 9596 | 1371 | 915 | 976 | 1041 | 65.0 | 69.4 | 74.0 |
2033 | 9433 | 1348 | 915 | 981 | 1052 | 66.2 | 71.0 | 76.1 |
2034 | 9272 | 1325 | 915 | 986 | 1062 | 67.3 | 72.6 | 78.2 |
2035 | 9115 | 1302 | 915 | 991 | 1073 | 68.5 | 74.2 | 80.3 |
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年份 | GDPPC(美元) | 第二产业(%) | 第三产业(%) | 占比1(%) | 占比2(%) | 占比平均(%) |
2019 | 10262 | 39.0 | 53.9 | 16.7 | 12.9 | 14.8 |
2020 | 10775 | 38.3 | 55.0 | 16.9 | 13.4 | 15.1 |
2021 | 11314 | 37.7 | 56.0 | 17.1 | 13.9 | 15.5 |
2022 | 11879 | 37.1 | 57.1 | 17.3 | 14.3 | 15.8 |
2023 | 12473 | 36.5 | 58.3 | 17.5 | 14.8 | 16.2 |
2024 | 13097 | 35.9 | 59.4 | 17.7 | 15.3 | 16.5 |
2025 | 13752 | 35.3 | 60.6 | 17.9 | 15.8 | 16.9 |
2026 | 14439 | 34.7 | 61.8 | 18.1 | 16.3 | 17.2 |
2027 | 15161 | 34.2 | 63.0 | 18.3 | 16.9 | 17.6 |
2028 | 15919 | 33.6 | 64.2 | 18.5 | 17.4 | 17.9 |
2029 | 16715 | 33.0 | 65.5 | 18.7 | 17.9 | 18.3 |
2030 | 17551 | 32.5 | 66.7 | 18.9 | 18.5 | 18.7 |
2031 | 18429 | 32.0 | 68.1 | 19.1 | 19.0 | 19.1 |
2032 | 19350 | 31.5 | 69.4 | 19.3 | 19.6 | 19.4 |
2033 | 20317 | 30.9 | 70.7 | 19.5 | 20.1 | 19.8 |
2034 | 21333 | 30.4 | 72.1 | 19.7 | 20.7 | 20.2 |
2035 | 22400 | 29.9 | 73.5 | 19.9 | 21.3 | 20.6 |
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年份 | GDPPC(美元) | 第二产业(%) | 第三产业(%) | 占比1(%) | 占比2(%) | 占比平均(%) |
2019 | 10262 | 39.0 | 53.9 | 14.5 | 11.2 | 12.8 |
2020 | 10775 | 38.3 | 55.0 | 14.6 | 11.6 | 13.1 |
2021 | 11314 | 37.7 | 56.0 | 14.8 | 12.0 | 13.4 |
2022 | 11879 | 37.1 | 57.1 | 15.0 | 12.4 | 13.7 |
2023 | 12473 | 36.5 | 58.3 | 15.1 | 12.9 | 14.0 |
2024 | 13097 | 35.9 | 59.4 | 15.3 | 13.3 | 14.3 |
2025 | 13752 | 35.3 | 60.6 | 15.4 | 13.8 | 14.6 |
2026 | 14439 | 34.7 | 61.8 | 15.6 | 14.2 | 14.9 |
2027 | 15161 | 34.2 | 63.0 | 15.8 | 14.7 | 15.2 |
2028 | 15919 | 33.6 | 64.2 | 15.9 | 15.2 | 15.6 |
2029 | 16715 | 33.0 | 65.5 | 16.1 | 15.7 | 15.9 |
2030 | 17551 | 32.5 | 66.7 | 16.2 | 16.2 | 16.2 |
2031 | 18429 | 32.0 | 68.1 | 16.4 | 16.7 | 16.5 |
2032 | 19350 | 31.5 | 69.4 | 16.6 | 17.2 | 16.9 |
2033 | 20317 | 30.9 | 70.7 | 16.7 | 17.7 | 17.2 |
2034 | 21333 | 30.4 | 72.1 | 16.9 | 18.3 | 17.6 |
2035 | 22400 | 29.9 | 73.5 | 17.0 | 18.8 | 17.9 |
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年份 | GDPPC(美元) | 第二产业(%) | 第三产业(%) | 占比1(%) | 占比2(%) | 占比平均(%) |
2019 | 10262 | 39.0 | 53.9 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 2.0 |
2020 | 10775 | 38.3 | 55.0 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 2.0 |
2021 | 11314 | 37.7 | 56.0 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 2.1 |
2022 | 11879 | 37.1 | 57.1 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 2.1 |
2023 | 12473 | 36.5 | 58.3 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 2.2 |
2024 | 13097 | 35.9 | 59.4 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 2.2 |
2025 | 13752 | 35.3 | 60.6 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 2.3 |
2026 | 14439 | 34.7 | 61.8 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 2.3 |
2027 | 15161 | 34.2 | 63.0 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 2.4 |
2028 | 15919 | 33.6 | 64.2 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 2.4 |
2029 | 16715 | 33.0 | 65.5 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 2.5 |
2030 | 17551 | 32.5 | 66.7 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 2.5 |
2031 | 18429 | 32.0 | 68.1 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 2.6 |
2032 | 19350 | 31.5 | 69.4 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 2.6 |
2033 | 20317 | 30.9 | 70.7 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 2.7 |
2034 | 21333 | 30.4 | 72.1 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 2.7 |
2035 | 22400 | 29.9 | 73.5 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 2.8 |
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年份 | GDPPC(美元) | 产业2(%) | 产业3(%) | 占比1(%) | 占比2(%) | 占比平均(%) |
2019 | 10262 | 39.0 | 53.9 | 4.71 | 4.21 | 4.5 |
2020 | 10775 | 38.3 | 55.0 | 4.73 | 4.25 | 4.5 |
2021 | 11314 | 37.7 | 56.0 | 4.75 | 4.29 | 4.5 |
2022 | 11879 | 37.1 | 57.1 | 4.77 | 4.32 | 4.5 |
2023 | 12473 | 36.5 | 58.3 | 4.79 | 4.36 | 4.6 |
2024 | 13097 | 35.9 | 59.4 | 4.82 | 4.39 | 4.6 |
2025 | 13752 | 35.3 | 60.6 | 4.84 | 4.42 | 4.6 |
2026 | 14439 | 34.7 | 61.8 | 4.86 | 4.44 | 4.7 |
2027 | 15161 | 34.2 | 63.0 | 4.88 | 4.47 | 4.7 |
2028 | 15919 | 33.6 | 64.2 | 4.90 | 4.50 | 4.7 |
2029 | 16715 | 33.0 | 65.5 | 4.93 | 4.52 | 4.7 |
2030 | 17551 | 32.5 | 66.7 | 4.95 | 4.54 | 4.7 |
2031 | 18429 | 32.0 | 68.1 | 4.97 | 4.56 | 4.8 |
2032 | 19350 | 31.5 | 69.4 | 4.99 | 4.58 | 4.8 |
2033 | 20317 | 30.9 | 70.7 | 5.01 | 4.60 | 4.8 |
2034 | 21333 | 30.4 | 72.1 | 5.04 | 4.62 | 4.8 |
2035 | 22400 | 29.9 | 73.5 | 5.06 | 4.63 | 4.8 |
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