Journal of East China Normal University(Educational Sciences) ›› 2022, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (2): 71-89.doi: 10.16382/j.cnki.1000-5560.2022.02.006
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Haiping Xue, Huanhuan Shi
Accepted:
2021-11-10
Online:
2022-02-01
Published:
2022-01-20
Haiping Xue, Huanhuan Shi. Starting Line Competition: An Analysis of the First Time for Primary and Secondary School Students to Participate in Extracurricular Tutoring—— An Empirical Study Supporting the Implementation of the “Double Reduction” Policy[J]. Journal of East China Normal University(Educational Sciences), 2022, 40(2): 71-89.
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最早开始年级 | 课外补习 | 学科类补习 | 兴趣类补习 | |||||
比例(%) | 样本量 | 比例(%) | 样本量 | 比例(%) | 样本量 | |||
小一 | 17.8 | 1794 | 9.1 | 929 | 12.3 | 1250 | ||
小二 | 5.8 | 583 | 4.6 | 470 | 3.0 | 305 | ||
小三 | 8.9 | 895 | 8.7 | 891 | 3.3 | 339 | ||
小四 | 4.1 | 417 | 4.5 | 463 | 1.7 | 178 | ||
小五 | 3.2 | 318 | 3.3 | 341 | 1.0 | 106 | ||
小六 | 1.9 | 195 | 2.0 | 209 | 0.6 | 63 | ||
初一 | 4.6 | 467 | 5.2 | 529 | 0.9 | 95 | ||
初二 | 2.2 | 222 | 2.4 | 247 | 0.4 | 39 | ||
初三 | 1.5 | 148 | 1.8 | 180 | 0.3 | 26 | ||
高一 | 1.3 | 132 | 1.3 | 137 | 0.4 | 44 | ||
高二 | 0.8 | 80 | 0.8 | 77 | 0.2 | 23 | ||
高三 | 0.5 | 46 | 0.4 | 46 | 0.1 | 8 |
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所在年级 | 课外补习 | 学科类课外补习 | 兴趣类课外补习 | |||||
首次参与比例 | 累积未参与比例 | 首次参与比例 | 累积未参与比例 | 首次参与比例 | 累积未参与比例 | |||
小一 | 0.18 | 0.82 | 0.09 | 0.91 | 0.12 | 0.88 | ||
小二 | 0.07 | 0.76 | 0.05 | 0.86 | 0.04 | 0.85 | ||
小三 | 0.13 | 0.66 | 0.12 | 0.76 | 0.04 | 0.81 | ||
小四 | 0.11 | 0.59 | 0.08 | 0.70 | 0.03 | 0.78 | ||
小五 | 0.07 | 0.55 | 0.07 | 0.65 | 0.02 | 0.77 | ||
小六 | 0.05 | 0.52 | 0.05 | 0.61 | 0.02 | 0.75 | ||
初一 | 0.17 | 0.43 | 0.16 | 0.51 | 0.03 | 0.73 | ||
初二 | 0.10 | 0.38 | 0.11 | 0.46 | 0.01 | 0.72 | ||
初三 | 0.10 | 0.35 | 0.11 | 0.41 | 0.01 | 0.71 | ||
高一 | 0.13 | 0.30 | 0.13 | 0.36 | 0.03 | 0.69 | ||
高二 | 0.14 | 0.26 | 0.12 | 0.31 | 0.03 | 0.67 | ||
高三 | 0.23 | 0.20 | 0.21 | 0.25 | 0.03 | 0.66 |
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所在年级 | 首次参与比例 | 未参与比例 | 累积未参与比例 | |||||
农村学生 | 城市学生 | 农村学生 | 城市学生 | 农村学生 | 城市学生 | |||
小一 | 0.06 | 0.23 | 0.94 | 0.77 | 0.94 | 0.77 | ||
小二 | 0.04 | 0.09 | 0.90 | 0.91 | 0.90 | 0.70 | ||
小三 | 0.06 | 0.17 | 0.85 | 0.83 | 0.85 | 0.59 | ||
小四 | 0.08 | 0.12 | 0.77 | 0.88 | 0.77 | 0.51 | ||
小五 | 0.04 | 0.09 | 0.74 | 0.91 | 0.74 | 0.47 | ||
小六 | 0.05 | 0.06 | 0.71 | 0.94 | 0.71 | 0.44 | ||
初一 | 0.11 | 0.20 | 0.63 | 0.80 | 0.63 | 0.35 | ||
初二 | 0.08 | 0.12 | 0.58 | 0.88 | 0.58 | 0.31 | ||
初三 | 0.09 | 0.11 | 0.53 | 0.89 | 0.53 | 0.28 | ||
高一 | 0.14 | 0.13 | 0.45 | 0.87 | 0.45 | 0.24 | ||
高二 | 0.14 | 0.14 | 0.39 | 0.86 | 0.39 | 0.21 | ||
高三 | 0.14 | 0.27 | 0.34 | 0.73 | 0.34 | 0.15 |
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补习类型 | 检验方法 | 卡方 | 自由度 | 显著性 |
课外补习 | Log Rank (Mantel-Cox) | 615.054 | 1 | p |
Breslow (Generalized Wilcoxon) | 700.475 | 1 | p | |
Tarone-Ware | 692.876 | 1 | p | |
学科类课外补习 | Log Rank (Mantel-Cox) | 334.388 | 1 | p |
Breslow (Generalized Wilcoxon) | 329.791 | 1 | p | |
Tarone-Ware | 349.957 | 1 | p | |
兴趣类课外补习 | Log Rank (Mantel-Cox) | 611.102 | 1 | p |
Breslow (Generalized Wilcoxon) | 642.426 | 1 | p | |
Tarone-Ware | 641.732 | 1 | p |
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所在年级 | 首次参与比例 | 未参与比例 | 累积未参与比例 | ||||||||
下层 | 中层 | 上层 | 下层 | 中层 | 上层 | 下层 | 中层 | 上层 | |||
小一 | 0.12 | 0.24 | 0.26 | 0.88 | 0.76 | 0.74 | 0.88 | 0.76 | 0.74 | ||
小二 | 0.06 | 0.08 | 0.10 | 0.94 | 0.92 | 0.90 | 0.83 | 0.70 | 0.67 | ||
小三 | 0.10 | 0.16 | 0.17 | 0.90 | 0.84 | 0.83 | 0.75 | 0.58 | 0.56 | ||
小四 | 0.09 | 0.14 | 0.12 | 0.91 | 0.86 | 0.88 | 0.68 | 0.50 | 0.49 | ||
小五 | 0.06 | 0.07 | 0.10 | 0.94 | 0.93 | 0.90 | 0.64 | 0.46 | 0.44 | ||
小六 | 0.05 | 0.07 | 0.06 | 0.95 | 0.93 | 0.94 | 0.61 | 0.43 | 0.41 | ||
初一 | 0.14 | 0.20 | 0.22 | 0.86 | 0.80 | 0.78 | 0.52 | 0.35 | 0.32 | ||
初二 | 0.10 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.90 | 0.89 | 0.89 | 0.47 | 0.31 | 0.29 | ||
初三 | 0.06 | 0.17 | 0.13 | 0.94 | 0.83 | 0.87 | 0.44 | 0.25 | 0.25 | ||
高一 | 0.12 | 0.14 | 0.15 | 0.88 | 0.86 | 0.85 | 0.38 | 0.22 | 0.21 | ||
高二 | 0.13 | 0.14 | 0.15 | 0.87 | 0.86 | 0.85 | 0.33 | 0.19 | 0.18 | ||
高三 | 0.23 | 0.20 | 0.25 | 0.77 | 0.80 | 0.75 | 0.26 | 0.15 | 0.13 |
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补习类型 | 检验方法 | 卡方 | 自由度 | 显著性 |
课外补习 | Log Rank (Mantel-Cox) | 436.040 | 2 | p |
Breslow (Generalized Wilcoxon) | 473.100 | 2 | p | |
Tarone-Ware | 473.864 | 2 | p | |
学科类课外补习 | Log Rank (Mantel-Cox) | 183.69 | 2 | p |
Breslow (Generalized Wilcoxon) | 146.546 | 2 | p | |
Tarone-Ware | 168.92 | 2 | p | |
兴趣类课外补习 | Log Rank (Mantel-Cox) | 586.361 | 2 | p |
Breslow (Generalized Wilcoxon) | 610.595 | 2 | p | |
Tarone-Ware | 613.415 | 2 |
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自变量 | 回归系数 | 标准误 | 风险比率 |
城市 (以农村为参照) | 0.441*** | 0.057 | 1.554 |
男生(以女生为参照) | 1.101*** | 0.057 | 3.007 |
父母职业为中层 (以下层为参照) | 1.807*** | 0.080 | 6.092 |
父母职业为上层 | 1.795*** | 0.075 | 6.019 |
父母受教育年限 | 0.075*** | 0.007 | 1.078 |
家庭经济中等 (以困难为参照) | 0.193*** | 0.064 | 1.213 |
家庭经济富裕 | 0.462*** | 0.073 | 1.587 |
东北部 (以东部为参照) | 1.471*** | 0.098 | 4.354 |
中部 | 1.208*** | 0.077 | 3.347 |
西部 | 0.888** | 0.075 | 2.430 |
男生×生存时间 | ?0.350*** | 0.013 | 0.705 |
父母职业为中层×生存时间 | ?0.488*** | 0.018 | 0.614 |
父母职业为上层×生存时间 | ?0.469*** | 0.019 | 0.626 |
东北部×生存时间 | ?0.344*** | 0.026 | 0.709 |
中部×生存时间 | ?0.330*** | 0.019 | 0.719 |
西部×生存时间 | ?0.285*** | 0.017 | 0.752 |
logt | 1.483*** | 0.045 | 4.406 |
_cons | ?4.595*** | 0.111 | 0.010 |
cure_p _cons | ?2.808*** | 0.111 | 0.060 |
Pr(never fail) (“长期存活者”概率) | 0.057 | ||
Likelihood | ?8184.309 | ||
LR chi2 | 6475.33 | ||
显著性 | p<0.001 |
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自变量 | 学科类课外补习 | 兴趣类课外补习 | |||||
回归系数 | 标准误 | 风险比率 | 回归系数 | 标准误 | 风险比率 | ||
城市 (以农村为参照) | 0.345*** | 0.061 | 1.412 | 0.667*** | 0.089 | 1.948 | |
男生 (以女生为参照) | 1.679*** | 0.072 | 5.360 | 0.573*** | 0.073 | 1.774 | |
父母职业为中层 (以下层为参照) | 1.668*** | 0.093 | 5.302 | 2.187*** | 0.104 | 8.908 | |
父母职业为上层 | 1.529*** | 0.087 | 4.614 | 2.199*** | 0.100 | 9.016 | |
父母受教育年限 | 0.042*** | 0.008 | 1.043 | 0.131*** | 0.010 | 1.140 | |
家庭经济中等 (以困难为参照) | 0.151** | 0.068 | 1.163 | 0.277*** | 0.101 | 1.319 | |
家庭经济富裕 | 0.379*** | 0.079 | 1.461 | 0.636*** | 0.108 | 1.889 | |
东北部(以东部为参照) | 2.151*** | 0.111 | 8.593 | 1.316*** | 0.146 | 3.728 | |
中部 | 1.453*** | 0.093 | 4.276 | 1.071*** | 0.100 | 2.918 | |
西部 | 1.028*** | 0.055 | 2.795 | 0.925*** | 0.097 | 2.522 | |
男生×生存时间 | ?0.414*** | 0.015 | 0.661 | ?0.276*** | 0.019 | 0.759 | |
父母职业为中层×生存时间 | ?0.388*** | 0.020 | 0.678 | ?0.575*** | 0.029 | 0.563 | |
父母职业为上层×生存时间 | ?0.374*** | 0.018 | 0.688 | ?0.596*** | 0.026 | 0.551 | |
东北部×生存时间 | ?0.423*** | 0.026 | 0.655 | ?0.451*** | 0.048 | 0.637 | |
中部×生存时间 | ?0.340*** | 0.021 | 0.712 | ?0.324*** | 0.030 | 0.723 | |
西部×生存时间 | ?0.281*** | 0.019 | 0.755 | ?0.312*** | 0.027 | 0.732 | |
logt | 2.037*** | 0.053 | 7.668 | 0.765*** | 0.056 | 2.149 | |
_cons | ?5.331*** | 0.125 | 0.005 | ?5.627*** | 0.162 | 0.004 | |
cure_p _cons | ?2.112*** | 0.125 | 0.121 | ?3.515*** | 0.526 | 0.030 | |
Pr(never fail) (“长期存活者”概率) | 0.108 | 0.029 | |||||
Likelihood | ?7926.913 | ?4670.978 | |||||
LR chi2 | 4799.64 | 6062.88 | |||||
显著性 | p<0.001 | p<0.001 |
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因变量:学科类课外补习 | 因变量:兴趣类课外补习 | |||||
自变量 | 回归系数 | 标准误 | 风险比率 | 回归系数 | 标准误 | 风险比率 |
父母职业为中层(以下层为参照) | 0.184*** | 0.067 | 1.202 | 0.327*** | 0.126 | 1.387 |
父母职业为上层 | 0.084 | 0.066 | 1.087 | 0.376*** | 0.121 | 1.457 |
父母受教育年限 | 0.050*** | 0.010 | 1.051 | 0.150*** | 0.017 | 1.161 |
家庭经济中等(以困难为参照) | 0.113** | 0.079 | 1.119 | 0.403** | 0.172 | 1.497 |
家庭经济富裕 | 0.376*** | 0.094 | 1.457 | 1.014*** | 0.187 | 2.755 |
其他变量 | 控制 | 控制 | ||||
“长期存活者”概率 | 0.170 | 0.083 | ||||
截距 | ?4.493*** | 0.138 | 0.011 | ?6.112*** | 0.267 | 0.002 |
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