Evolutionary Conformity of World Education, Technology and Talent Centers: A Cohort Analysis of 200, 000 Scientists

doi:10.16382/j.cnki.1000-5560.2026.02.002

Abstract

Abstract:

Scientists are critical drivers for the evolution of world centers of education, technology and talent. The evolution of the three major centers is positioned around scientists, showing high correlation with knowledge accumulation and scientists’ mobility. Constructing a database of 204,643 scientists on education, technology, and talent, through correlation analysis, principal component analysis, OLS regression analysis, and Granger causality analysis, it is found that scientists take center stage to the three major centers and significantly contribute to the development of economy, education and technology. Cohort analysis and Kernal density estimation analysis reveal that the evolution of three centers is consistent. Scientist cultivation in era of big science can focus on three aspects: clarifying the centrality of scientists in an epistemological sense, shortening the time lag between the transformation of scientists’ human capital and social value, and considering the national government a leading force in the identification and nurturing of scientists.

Key words: era of big science, scientists, three world major centers, talent cultivation

Ji Liu, Lin Qiu. Evolutionary Conformity of World Education, Technology and Talent Centers: A Cohort Analysis of 200, 000 Scientists[J]. Journal of East China Normal University(Educationa, 2026, 44(2): 32-42.

Figures/Tables 7

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变量	均值	标准差	最大值	最小值	国家或地区数
人均GDP（万美元）	9.135	1.517	12.392	5.557	168
教育指数（分）	6.060	0.139	6.355	5.728	168
科技指数（分）	3.438	0.370	4.214	2.526	168
人才指数（分）	4.623	2.785	12.571	1.048	168
人口增长率（%）	0.819	1.767	3.687	−14.257	168

变量	主成分特征值	方差贡献率	累计方差贡献率	主成分权重
教育指数	0.527	10.56%	10.56%	11.92%
科技指数	0.881	17.63%	28.19%	19.90%
人才指数	3.018	60.38%	88.57%	68.18%
人均GDP	0.311	6.22%	94.79%	-
人口增长率	0.261	5.21%	100%	-

因变量	人均GDP		科技指数		教育指数
模型	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)
		滞后1期		滞后1期		滞后1期
人才指数	0.041**	0.038**	0.054***	0.050***	0.013***	0.011***
人才指数	(0.016)	(0.017)	(0.007)	(0.008)	(0.002)	(0.003)
收入水平	√	√	√	√	√	√
地理特征	√	√	√	√	√	√
人口特征	√	√	√	√	√	√
常数项	7.877***	7.856***	3.156***	3.135***	5.987***	5.985***
常数项	(0.157)	(0.160)	(0.068)	(0.073)	(0.027)	(0.028)
样本量	168	168	168	168	168	168
R²	0.890	0.889	0.634	0.615	0.599	0.587

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[5]	Ting Zhao, Yuting Hu, Dongsheng Xu. Building a Discipline System for Charity Education in China [J]. Journal of East China Normal University(Educational Sciences), 2024, 42(7): 42-52.