Abstract:

The size and proportion of the middle-income group is an important sign of the realization of common prosperity, and is also related to whether China can successfully overcome the middle-income trap and enter a high-income society. From the overall and long-term perspective, the core of the strategy to expand the middle-income group is to improve its ability to create wealth by enhancing the human capital of the low-income group. Therefore, the determining factor for expanding the middle-income group lies in education. It is through the sharing of quality and fair educational opportunities and processes that the general public can improve their human capital and earning capacity and realize fundamental and sustainable common prosperity. Looking towards 2035, how should education help expand the middle-income group? This study, based on data from China Family Panel Studies, presents the trend of the proportion of middle-income group changing with the highest education level, the proportion of people with various educational backgrounds within the three income groups, and the trend of the proportion of middle-income group changing with the survey year and graduation years within each education level, to provide preliminary evidence for the ability of China’s educational system to cultivate middle-income group. Meanwhile, using data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, this study shows the changing trend of the proportion of middle-income group in various educational groups during the process of doubling the middle-income group in the United States from 1976 to 1982, to provide reference for achieving the goal of doubling the middle-income group in China. Finally, based on the research results, policy implications are provided for the design and implementation of the goal to expand the middle-income group in China.

Key words: common prosperity, middle-income group, highest diploma, evidence-based, educational policy