The Impact of Graduate Education Choices on College Students’ Future Marriage and Fertility Intentions

doi:10.16382/j.cnki.1000-5560.2026.02.006

Abstract

Abstract:

In the context of the dual pressures of high-level talent cultivation strategies and intensifying employment competition, pursuing a graduate degree has become one of the primary educational choices for the majority of Chinese youth. The extension of higher education duration not only represents a vertical extension of one’s academic career but also has profound effects on the construction of individual life courses. This extension may exacerbate the “education-employment-marriage-childbearing” temporal squeeze, potentially accelerating the process of low fertility rate in China. Based on data from the national university student tracking survey, this study investigates the impact of graduate education choices on college students’ future marriage and childbearing intentions. The findings reveal that graduate education significantly inhibits students’ marriage intentions, delays their expected age at first marriage, reduces their childbearing intentions, and lowers their expected number of children. Notably, the inhibitory effects are more pronounced among female students and those from low-income family backgrounds. This study expands the theoretical perspective on the relationship between education and marriage/childbearing, providing empirical evidence for future collaborative reforms in higher education systems and population policies.

Key words: graduate education choices, marriage intentions, fertility intentions, college students, effects

Wei Bao, Chen Zhou, Changhong Xu. The Impact of Graduate Education Choices on College Students’ Future Marriage and Fertility Intentions[J]. Journal of East China Normal University(Educationa, 2026, 44(2): 93-111.

Figures/Tables 12

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类型	名称	指标	操作化	均值	标准差
因变量	婚姻意愿	婚姻意愿	有=1，无=0	0.832	0.374
	婚姻意愿	预期初婚年龄	有序分类变量，预期初婚年龄分为22岁及以下、23—25岁、 26—29岁和30岁及以上4个区间	3.036	0.569
	生育意愿	生育意愿	有=1，无=0	0.763	0.425
	生育意愿	预期生育子女数	计数型变量，预期生育的子女数量	1.100	0.795
自变量	研究生教育选择	本科毕业后是否读研	读研=1（包括国内读研和海外留学），就业=0 （包括就业和创业）	0.418	0.493
控制变量	个体特征	性别	女性=1，男性=0	0.438	0.496
	家庭社会经济地位	家庭经济收入	连续变量，学生家庭年收入（万元），对数化处理	15.912	18.112
	职业预期	保留工资	连续变量，学生毕业后可接受的最低起薪（万元），对数化处理	0.763	0.928
	外部压力感知	求职压力感知	对于未来求职难度的主观认知：低压力=1，中等压力=2，高压力=3	2.554	0.541
	外部压力感知	生育成本感知	对于生育成本压力的主观认知：低压力=1，中等压力=2，高压力=3	2.689	0.493
	学科特征	专业门类	人文、社会科学、理学、工学4大门类（虚拟变量，以人文类为基准项）	----	----

变量	婚姻意愿（二元logit回归）	预期初婚年龄（有序logit回归）
读研	−0.278***	0.452***
读研	（0.057）	（0.050）
家庭经济收入（对数化）	−0.097***	0.028
家庭经济收入（对数化）	（0.031）	（0.028）
求职压力感知	−0.190***	0.031
求职压力感知	（0.053）	（0.049）
女性	−0.492***	−0.107**
女性	（0.062）	（0.054）
专业固定效应	控制	控制
常数项	2.544***	—
常数项	（0.177）	—
Pseudo R²	0.018	0.007
Chi-square	156.70***	97.52***
N	9352	7778

变量	生育意愿（二元logit回归）	预期生育子女数（泊松回归）
读研	−0.108**	−0.040***
读研	（0.051）	（0.015）
保留工资（对数化）	−0.169***	−0.010
保留工资（对数化）	（0.047）	（0.014）
生育成本感知	−0.636***	−0.172***
生育成本感知	（0.059）	（0.014）
女性	−0.811***	−0.252***
女性	（0.058）	（0.016）
专业固定效应	控制	控制
常数项	3.177***	0.664***
常数项	（0.184）	（0.044）
Pseudo R²	0.044	0.012
Chi-square	377.73***	480.87***
N	9352	9352

变量	⑴ 婚姻意愿	⑵ 预期初婚年龄	⑶ 生育意愿	⑷ 预期生育子女数
读研	−0.332***	0.457***	−0.115**	−0.045***
读研	（0.061）	（0.053）	（0.054）	（0.016）
控制变量	控制	控制	控制	控制
专业固定效应	控制	控制	控制	控制
常数项	2.567***	—	3.256***	0.661***
常数项	（0.188）	—	（0.196）	（0.047）
Pseudo R²	0.022	0.007	0.046	0.012
Chi-square	167.77***	88.50***	345.41***	426.34***
N	8273	6858	8273	8273

变量	样本	平均值		偏差（%）	偏差减幅（%）	t值	p>\|t\|
变量	样本	处理组	对照组	偏差（%）	偏差减幅（%）	t值	p>\|t\|
女性	匹配前	0.573	0.555	3.6		1.73*	0.084
女性	匹配后	0.573	0.570	0.6	82.2	0.28	0.776
家庭经济收入（对数化）	匹配前	2.516	2.175	37.1		17.77***	0.000
家庭经济收入（对数化）	匹配后	2.516	2.489	2.9	92.2	1.27	0.203
求职压力感知	匹配前	2.602	2.519	15.5		7.36***	0.000
求职压力感知	匹配后	2.602	2.599	0.6	96.0	0.28	0.779
专业门类：社科类	匹配前	0.344	0.368	−5.1		−2.42**	0.015
专业门类：社科类	匹配后	0.344	0.340	0.7	85.5	0.33	0.743
专业门类：理学类	匹配前	0.074	0.055	8.0		3.86***	0.000
专业门类：理学类	匹配后	0.074	0.071	1.3	84.3	0.53	0.598
专业门类：工学类	匹配前	0.448	0.417	6.1		2.92***	0.003
专业门类：工学类	匹配后	0.448	0.455	−1.5	75.6	−0.66	0.511