Journal of East China Normal University(Educational Sciences) ›› 2021, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (12): 59-80.doi: 10.16382/j.cnki.1000-5560.2021.12.005
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Jinzhong Qiao1, Jingxuan Shen2, Handong Li3, Binglin Zhong1
Online:
2021-12-01
Published:
2021-11-23
Jinzhong Qiao, Jingxuan Shen, Handong Li, Binglin Zhong. Research on the Resource Allocation of Compulsory Education in China from 2020 to 2035[J]. Journal of East China Normal University(Educational Sciences), 2021, 39(12): 59-80.
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年份 | 6岁 | 7岁 | 8岁 | 9岁 | 10岁 | 11岁 | 小学适龄人口 | 12岁 | 13岁 | 14岁 | 初中适龄人口 | 适龄总人口 |
2020 | 1640 | 1610 | 1595 | 1550 | 1520 | 1545 | 9460 | 1545 | 1525 | 1500 | 4570 | 14030 |
2021 | 1645 | 1640 | 1610 | 1595 | 1550 | 1520 | 9560 | 1545 | 1545 | 1525 | 4615 | 14175 |
2022 | 1695 | 1640 | 1635 | 1610 | 1595 | 1550 | 9725 | 1520 | 1545 | 1545 | 4610 | 14335 |
2023 | 1730 | 1695 | 1640 | 1635 | 1610 | 1595 | 9905 | 1550 | 1520 | 1545 | 4615 | 14520 |
2024 | 1615 | 1725 | 1690 | 1640 | 1635 | 1610 | 9915 | 1595 | 1550 | 1520 | 4665 | 14580 |
2025 | 1505 | 1615 | 1725 | 1690 | 1640 | 1635 | 9810 | 1610 | 1595 | 1550 | 4755 | 14565 |
2026 | 1455 | 1505 | 1615 | 1725 | 1690 | 1640 | 9630 | 1635 | 1610 | 1595 | 4840 | 14470 |
2027 | 1415 | 1455 | 1505 | 1615 | 1725 | 1690 | 9405 | 1640 | 1635 | 1610 | 4885 | 14290 |
2028 | 1370 | 1410 | 1450 | 1505 | 1615 | 1725 | 9075 | 1690 | 1640 | 1635 | 4965 | 14040 |
2029 | 1315 | 1370 | 1410 | 1450 | 1505 | 1615 | 8665 | 1725 | 1690 | 1640 | 5055 | 13720 |
2030 | 1260 | 1315 | 1370 | 1410 | 1450 | 1505 | 8310 | 1615 | 1725 | 1690 | 5030 | 13340 |
2031 | 1210 | 1255 | 1310 | 1370 | 1410 | 1450 | 8005 | 1505 | 1615 | 1725 | 4845 | 12850 |
2032 | 1170 | 1210 | 1255 | 1310 | 1370 | 1410 | 7725 | 1450 | 1505 | 1615 | 4570 | 12295 |
2033 | 1130 | 1170 | 1210 | 1255 | 1310 | 1370 | 7445 | 1410 | 1450 | 1505 | 4365 | 11810 |
2034 | 1100 | 1130 | 1170 | 1210 | 1255 | 1310 | 7175 | 1370 | 1410 | 1450 | 4230 | 11405 |
2035 | 1075 | 1100 | 1130 | 1170 | 1210 | 1255 | 6940 | 1310 | 1370 | 1410 | 4090 | 11030 |
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年份 | 人口城镇化率 | 在校生城镇化率 | 在校生城区化率 | 在校生镇区率 | |||||
初中 | 小学 | 初中 | 小学 | 初中 | 小学 | ||||
2008 | 46.99 | 62.97 | 42.65 | 19.14 | 17.46 | 43.82 | 25.19 | ||
2009 | 48.34 | 64.40 | 43.85 | 19.49 | 17.66 | 44.91 | 26.18 | ||
2010 | 49.95 | 66.18 | 46.18 | 20.07 | 18.31 | 46.10 | 27.87 | ||
2011 | 51.27 | 77.05 | 59.05 | 28.35 | 26.26 | 48.70 | 32.78 | ||
2012 | 52.57 | 79.55 | 62.33 | 30.25 | 27.73 | 49.29 | 34.60 | ||
2013 | 53.73 | 81.66 | 65.63 | 32.21 | 29.62 | 49.45 | 36.01 | ||
2014 | 54.77 | 82.93 | 67.73 | 33.50 | 31.14 | 49.43 | 36.59 | ||
2015 | 56.10 | 83.71 | 69.40 | 33.42 | 31.68 | 50.29 | 37.71 | ||
2016 | 57.40 | 84.59 | 70.83 | 34.40 | 32.96 | 50.19 | 37.87 | ||
2017 | 58.52 | 85.52 | 72.50 | 35.28 | 34.30 | 50.24 | 38.20 |
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年份 | 人口城镇化率 | 在校生城镇化率 | 在校生城区率 | 在校生镇区率 | |||||
初中 | 小学 | 初中 | 小学 | 初中 | 小学 | ||||
2020 | 61.63 | 88.08 | 77.75 | 36.75 | 35.67 | 51.33 | 42.08 | ||
2021 | 62.61 | 88.64 | 79.11 | 37.41 | 36.46 | 51.23 | 42.65 | ||
2022 | 63.55 | 89.10 | 80.34 | 38.07 | 37.24 | 51.03 | 43.10 | ||
2023 | 64.45 | 89.46 | 81.46 | 38.73 | 38.03 | 50.72 | 43.43 | ||
2024 | 65.32 | 89.71 | 82.45 | 39.40 | 38.81 | 50.31 | 43.63 | ||
2025 | 66.15 | 89.85 | 83.31 | 40.06 | 39.60 | 49.79 | 43.71 | ||
2026 | 66.95 | 89.88 | 84.06 | 40.72 | 40.38 | 49.16 | 43.67 | ||
2027 | 67.71 | 89.81 | 84.68 | 41.38 | 41.17 | 48.43 | 43.51 | ||
2028 | 68.43 | 89.63 | 85.18 | 42.04 | 41.95 | 47.58 | 43.22 | ||
2029 | 69.11 | 89.34 | 85.55 | 42.70 | 42.74 | 46.64 | 42.81 | ||
2030 | 69.76 | 88.95 | 85.80 | 43.36 | 43.53 | 45.58 | 42.28 | ||
2031 | 70.37 | 88.45 | 85.93 | 44.03 | 44.31 | 44.42 | 41.62 | ||
2032 | 70.95 | 87.84 | 85.94 | 44.69 | 45.10 | 43.15 | 40.84 | ||
2033 | 71.49 | 87.13 | 85.82 | 45.35 | 45.88 | 41.78 | 39.94 | ||
2034 | 71.99 | 86.31 | 85.58 | 46.01 | 46.67 | 40.30 | 38.92 | ||
2035 | 72.45 | 85.38 | 85.22 | 46.67 | 47.45 | 38.71 | 37.77 |
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年份 | 城镇在校生数量 | 农村在校生数量 | 在校生总量 | ||||||||
总量 | 初中 | 小学 | 总量 | 初中 | 小学 | 总量 | 初中 | 小学 | |||
2020 | 5324.26 | 1927.09 | 3397.17 | 8717.45 | 2650.38 | 6067.08 | 14041.71 | 4577.47 | 9464.24 | ||
2021 | 5335.03 | 1980.28 | 3354.75 | 8842.64 | 2641.43 | 6201.21 | 14177.67 | 4621.71 | 9555.96 | ||
2022 | 5367.54 | 2014.62 | 3352.93 | 8972.09 | 2600.54 | 6371.55 | 14339.63 | 4615.16 | 9724.48 | ||
2023 | 5422.20 | 1953.85 | 3468.35 | 9095.80 | 2661.59 | 6434.21 | 14517.99 | 4615.44 | 9902.56 | ||
2024 | 5431.36 | 1833.38 | 3597.98 | 9150.45 | 2827.80 | 6322.65 | 14581.81 | 4661.18 | 9920.63 | ||
2025 | 5398.53 | 1746.30 | 3652.24 | 9163.86 | 3004.71 | 6159.15 | 14562.39 | 4751.01 | 9811.39 | ||
2026 | 5428.61 | 1762.33 | 3666.28 | 9036.93 | 3078.47 | 5958.46 | 14465.54 | 4840.80 | 9624.74 | ||
2027 | 5487.90 | 1844.14 | 3643.76 | 8795.16 | 3042.87 | 5752.29 | 14283.05 | 4887.00 | 9396.05 | ||
2028 | 5494.26 | 1928.51 | 3565.76 | 8547.08 | 3037.33 | 5509.76 | 14041.34 | 4965.83 | 9075.51 | ||
2029 | 5458.81 | 2028.87 | 3429.94 | 8257.48 | 3025.36 | 5232.12 | 13716.29 | 5054.23 | 8662.06 | ||
2030 | 5383.10 | 2073.35 | 3309.75 | 7951.36 | 2953.10 | 4998.27 | 13334.46 | 5026.44 | 8308.02 | ||
2031 | 5250.44 | 2031.71 | 3218.73 | 7603.18 | 2807.04 | 4796.14 | 12853.62 | 4838.75 | 8014.87 | ||
2032 | 5059.75 | 1929.95 | 3129.80 | 7234.64 | 2634.20 | 4600.45 | 12294.39 | 4564.14 | 7730.25 | ||
2033 | 4888.44 | 1845.61 | 3042.83 | 6923.56 | 2518.05 | 4405.52 | 11812.00 | 4363.66 | 7448.34 | ||
2034 | 4753.69 | 1793.82 | 2959.87 | 6655.57 | 2437.41 | 4218.17 | 11409.26 | 4231.23 | 7178.04 | ||
2035 | 4628.45 | 1744.52 | 2883.94 | 6405.04 | 2348.30 | 4056.74 | 11033.49 | 4092.82 | 6940.68 |
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年份 | 城镇在校生数 | 城区在校生数 | 镇区在校生数 | 农村在校生数 | 义务教育在校生总数 | ||||||||||||||
在校生 总量 | 初中 | 小学 | 在校生 总量 | 初中 | 小学 | 在校生 总量 | 初中 | 小学 | 在校生 总量 | 初中 | 小学 | 在校生总量 | 初中 | 小学 | |||||
2020 | 11380 | 4025 | 7355 | 5054 | 1679 | 3374 | 6326 | 2346 | 3981 | 2650 | 545 | 2105 | 14030 | 4570 | 9460 | ||||
2021 | 11654 | 4091 | 7563 | 5212 | 1727 | 3485 | 6442 | 2364 | 4078 | 2521 | 524 | 1997 | 14175 | 4615 | 9560 | ||||
2022 | 11921 | 4108 | 7813 | 5377 | 1755 | 3622 | 6544 | 2353 | 4192 | 2414 | 502 | 1912 | 14335 | 4610 | 9725 | ||||
2023 | 12197 | 4128 | 8068 | 5554 | 1788 | 3767 | 6643 | 2341 | 4302 | 2323 | 487 | 1837 | 14520 | 4615 | 9905 | ||||
2024 | 12359 | 4185 | 8174 | 5686 | 1838 | 3848 | 6673 | 2347 | 4326 | 2221 | 480 | 1741 | 14580 | 4665 | 9915 | ||||
2025 | 12445 | 4272 | 8173 | 5789 | 1905 | 3885 | 6656 | 2367 | 4288 | 2120 | 483 | 1637 | 14565 | 4755 | 9810 | ||||
2026 | 12445 | 4350 | 8095 | 5860 | 1971 | 3889 | 6585 | 2379 | 4206 | 2025 | 490 | 1535 | 14470 | 4840 | 9630 | ||||
2027 | 12351 | 4387 | 7964 | 5893 | 2021 | 3872 | 6458 | 2366 | 4092 | 1939 | 498 | 1441 | 14290 | 4885 | 9405 | ||||
2028 | 12180 | 4450 | 7730 | 5895 | 2087 | 3807 | 6285 | 2363 | 3922 | 1860 | 515 | 1345 | 14040 | 4965 | 9075 | ||||
2029 | 11929 | 4516 | 7413 | 5862 | 2159 | 3703 | 6067 | 2357 | 3709 | 1791 | 539 | 1252 | 13720 | 5055 | 8665 | ||||
2030 | 11604 | 4474 | 7130 | 5798 | 2181 | 3617 | 5806 | 2293 | 3513 | 1736 | 556 | 1180 | 13340 | 5030 | 8310 | ||||
2031 | 11164 | 4285 | 6879 | 5680 | 2133 | 3547 | 5484 | 2152 | 3332 | 1686 | 560 | 1126 | 12850 | 4845 | 8005 | ||||
2032 | 10653 | 4014 | 6639 | 5526 | 2042 | 3484 | 5127 | 1972 | 3155 | 1642 | 556 | 1086 | 12295 | 4570 | 7725 | ||||
2033 | 10193 | 3803 | 6390 | 5395 | 1979 | 3416 | 4797 | 1824 | 2974 | 1617 | 562 | 1055 | 11810 | 4365 | 7445 | ||||
2034 | 9791 | 3651 | 6141 | 5295 | 1946 | 3348 | 4497 | 1705 | 2792 | 1614 | 579 | 1034 | 11405 | 4230 | 7175 | ||||
2035 | 9407 | 3492 | 5914 | 5202 | 1909 | 3293 | 4204 | 1583 | 2621 | 1623 | 598 | 1026 | 11030 | 4090 | 6940 |
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年份 | 城镇学校需求数 | 城区学校需求数 | 镇区学校需求数 | 农村学校需求数 | 学校总需求数 | ||||||||||||||
总量 | 初中 | 小学 | 总量 | 初中 | 小学 | 总量 | 初中 | 小学 | 总量 | 初中 | 小学 | 总量 | 初中 | 小学 | |||||
2020 | 11.01 | 3.88 | 7.13 | 3.97 | 1.32 | 2.65 | 7.07 | 2.55 | 4.52 | 8.58 | 1.29 | 7.28 | 19.59 | 5.17 | 14.42 | ||||
2021 | 11.28 | 3.94 | 7.33 | 4.10 | 1.36 | 2.73 | 7.20 | 2.57 | 4.63 | 8.16 | 1.25 | 6.91 | 19.43 | 5.19 | 14.24 | ||||
2022 | 11.53 | 3.96 | 7.58 | 4.22 | 1.38 | 2.84 | 7.32 | 2.56 | 4.76 | 7.81 | 1.19 | 6.62 | 19.34 | 5.15 | 14.19 | ||||
2023 | 11.80 | 3.98 | 7.82 | 4.36 | 1.41 | 2.95 | 7.43 | 2.54 | 4.89 | 7.51 | 1.16 | 6.36 | 19.31 | 5.13 | 14.18 | ||||
2024 | 11.96 | 4.03 | 7.93 | 4.47 | 1.45 | 3.02 | 7.46 | 2.55 | 4.91 | 7.16 | 1.14 | 6.02 | 19.12 | 5.17 | 13.95 | ||||
2025 | 12.04 | 4.12 | 7.92 | 4.55 | 1.50 | 3.05 | 7.44 | 2.57 | 4.87 | 6.81 | 1.15 | 5.67 | 18.85 | 5.26 | 13.59 | ||||
2026 | 12.04 | 4.19 | 7.85 | 4.60 | 1.55 | 3.05 | 7.36 | 2.59 | 4.78 | 6.48 | 1.16 | 5.31 | 18.52 | 5.36 | 13.16 | ||||
2027 | 11.95 | 4.23 | 7.72 | 4.63 | 1.59 | 3.04 | 7.22 | 2.57 | 4.65 | 6.17 | 1.18 | 4.99 | 18.12 | 5.41 | 12.71 | ||||
2028 | 11.78 | 4.29 | 7.49 | 4.63 | 1.65 | 2.99 | 7.02 | 2.57 | 4.45 | 5.88 | 1.22 | 4.66 | 17.66 | 5.51 | 12.15 | ||||
2029 | 11.54 | 4.35 | 7.19 | 4.61 | 1.70 | 2.91 | 6.78 | 2.56 | 4.21 | 5.61 | 1.28 | 4.33 | 17.15 | 5.63 | 11.52 | ||||
2030 | 11.22 | 4.31 | 6.91 | 4.56 | 1.72 | 2.84 | 6.48 | 2.49 | 3.99 | 5.40 | 1.32 | 4.08 | 16.63 | 5.63 | 11.00 | ||||
2031 | 10.80 | 4.13 | 6.67 | 4.46 | 1.68 | 2.78 | 6.12 | 2.34 | 3.78 | 5.23 | 1.33 | 3.90 | 16.03 | 5.46 | 10.57 | ||||
2032 | 10.31 | 3.87 | 6.44 | 4.34 | 1.61 | 2.73 | 5.73 | 2.14 | 3.58 | 5.08 | 1.32 | 3.76 | 15.38 | 5.19 | 10.20 | ||||
2033 | 9.86 | 3.66 | 6.20 | 4.24 | 1.56 | 2.68 | 5.36 | 1.98 | 3.38 | 4.99 | 1.34 | 3.65 | 14.85 | 5.00 | 9.85 | ||||
2034 | 9.47 | 3.52 | 5.95 | 4.16 | 1.53 | 2.63 | 5.02 | 1.85 | 3.17 | 4.96 | 1.38 | 3.58 | 14.43 | 4.89 | 9.53 | ||||
2035 | 9.10 | 3.37 | 5.73 | 4.09 | 1.50 | 2.58 | 4.70 | 1.72 | 2.98 | 4.97 | 1.42 | 3.55 | 14.07 | 4.79 | 9.28 |
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年份 | 农村学校数 | 城镇学校数 | 城区学校数 | 镇区学校数 | 全国学校数 | |||||||||||||||||||
总数 | 初中 | 小学 | 小学 教学点 | 总数 | 初中 | 小学 | 小学 教学点 | 总数 | 初中 | 小学 | 小学 教学点 | 总数 | 初中 | 小学 | 小学 教学点 | 总数 | 初中 | 小学 | 小学 教学点 | |||||
2003 | 38.68 | 2.65 | 36.04 | 10.17 | 10.27 | 3.73 | 6.55 | 0.40 | 3.45 | 0.90 | 2.55 | 0.08 | 5.75 | 1.75 | 4.00 | 0.32 | 48.96 | 6.37 | 42.58 | 10.57 | ||||
2004 | 36.25 | 2.52 | 33.73 | 9.81 | 9.55 | 3.86 | 5.69 | 0.34 | 3.22 | 0.88 | 2.34 | 0.08 | 4.98 | 1.64 | 3.34 | 0.26 | 45.79 | 6.38 | 39.42 | 10.15 | ||||
2005 | 34.24 | 2.57 | 31.68 | 9.29 | 8.63 | 3.68 | 4.94 | 0.16 | 2.86 | 0.82 | 2.04 | 0.04 | 4.65 | 1.75 | 2.91 | 0.12 | 42.87 | 6.25 | 36.62 | 9.45 | ||||
2006 | 31.59 | 2.53 | 29.06 | 8.64 | 7.77 | 3.53 | 4.24 | 0.16 | * | * | 1.46 | 0.02 | * | * | 2.78 | 0.14 | 39.36 | 6.06 | 33.31 | 8.80 | ||||
2007 | 29.79 | 2.63 | 27.16 | 8.31 | 8.15 | 3.30 | 4.85 | 0.19 | 1.34 | 0.76 | 0.58 | 0.08 | 4.97 | 1.87 | 3.09 | 0.16 | 37.94 | 5.94 | 32.01 | 8.50 | ||||
2008 | 27.94 | 2.63 | 25.30 | 7.75 | 7.94 | 3.16 | 4.78 | 0.16 | 2.49 | 0.76 | 1.73 | 0.02 | 4.92 | 1.87 | 3.05 | 0.13 | 35.88 | 5.79 | 30.09 | 7.91 | ||||
2009 | 26.02 | 2.61 | 23.42 | 7.10 | 7.63 | 3.03 | 4.60 | 0.15 | 2.37 | 0.73 | 1.64 | 0.02 | 4.84 | 1.87 | 2.97 | 0.13 | 33.65 | 5.63 | 28.02 | 7.25 | ||||
2010 | 23.96 | 2.87 | 21.09 | 6.54 | 7.27 | 2.62 | 4.65 | 0.15 | 2.62 | 1.89 | 0.73 | 0.02 | 4.90 | 1.89 | 3.01 | 0.13 | 31.23 | 5.49 | 25.74 | 6.69 | ||||
2011 | 19.00 | 2.10 | 16.90 | 6.10 | 10.53 | 3.31 | 7.22 | 0.65 | 3.70 | 1.08 | 2.62 | 0.08 | 6.83 | 2.24 | 4.60 | 0.56 | 29.54 | 5.41 | 24.12 | 6.74 | ||||
2012 | 17.44 | 1.94 | 15.50 | 6.25 | 10.74 | 3.38 | 7.36 | 0.73 | 5.84 | 1.09 | 4.74 | 0.64 | 4.90 | 2.29 | 2.61 | 0.08 | 28.18 | 5.32 | 22.86 | 6.98 | ||||
2013 | 15.88 | 1.85 | 14.03 | 7.36 | 10.75 | 3.43 | 7.32 | 0.92 | 3.72 | 1.11 | 2.60 | 0.12 | 7.03 | 2.32 | 4.72 | 0.81 | 26.63 | 5.28 | 21.35 | 8.28 | ||||
2014 | 14.64 | 1.77 | 12.87 | 7.86 | 10.76 | 3.49 | 7.27 | 1.04 | 3.77 | 1.15 | 2.63 | 0.14 | 6.98 | 2.34 | 4.64 | 0.90 | 25.40 | 5.26 | 20.14 | 8.90 | ||||
2015 | 13.54 | 1.70 | 11.84 | 8.18 | 10.76 | 3.54 | 7.21 | 1.12 | 3.76 | 1.15 | 2.61 | 0.15 | 7.00 | 2.39 | 4.61 | 0.97 | 24.29 | 5.24 | 19.05 | 9.30 | ||||
2016 | 12.26 | 1.62 | 10.64 | 8.68 | 10.72 | 3.59 | 7.12 | 1.16 | 3.86 | 1.19 | 2.66 | 0.15 | 6.86 | 2.40 | 4.46 | 1.01 | 22.98 | 5.21 | 17.76 | 9.84 | ||||
2017 | 11.13 | 1.52 | 9.61 | 9.03 | 10.76 | 3.67 | 7.10 | 1.27 | 3.95 | 1.24 | 2.72 | 0.17 | 6.80 | 2.43 | 4.38 | 1.10 | 21.89 | 5.19 | 16.70 | 10.30 |
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年份 | 城镇专任 教师需求数 | 城区专任 教师需求数 | 镇区专任 教师需求数 | 农村专任 教师需求数 | 义务教育专任 教师需求总数 | ||||||||||||||
总量 | 初中 | 小学 | 总量 | 初中 | 小学 | 总量 | 初中 | 小学 | 总量 | 初中 | 小学 | 总量 | 初中 | 小学 | |||||
2020 | 749 | 313 | 437 | 331 | 130 | 200 | 418 | 182 | 236 | 167 | 42 | 125 | 916 | 355 | 561 | ||||
2021 | 766 | 318 | 449 | 341 | 134 | 207 | 426 | 184 | 242 | 159 | 41 | 119 | 926 | 358 | 567 | ||||
2022 | 783 | 319 | 464 | 351 | 136 | 215 | 431 | 183 | 249 | 152 | 39 | 113 | 935 | 358 | 577 | ||||
2023 | 799 | 321 | 479 | 362 | 139 | 224 | 437 | 182 | 255 | 147 | 38 | 109 | 946 | 358 | 588 | ||||
2024 | 810 | 325 | 485 | 371 | 143 | 228 | 439 | 182 | 257 | 141 | 37 | 103 | 951 | 362 | 588 | ||||
2025 | 817 | 332 | 485 | 378 | 148 | 231 | 438 | 184 | 255 | 135 | 37 | 97 | 951 | 369 | 582 | ||||
2026 | 818 | 338 | 480 | 384 | 153 | 231 | 434 | 185 | 250 | 129 | 38 | 91 | 947 | 376 | 572 | ||||
2027 | 813 | 341 | 473 | 387 | 157 | 230 | 427 | 184 | 243 | 124 | 39 | 86 | 937 | 379 | 558 | ||||
2028 | 804 | 345 | 459 | 388 | 162 | 226 | 416 | 183 | 233 | 120 | 40 | 80 | 924 | 385 | 539 | ||||
2029 | 791 | 351 | 440 | 387 | 168 | 220 | 403 | 183 | 220 | 116 | 42 | 74 | 907 | 392 | 514 | ||||
2030 | 771 | 347 | 423 | 384 | 169 | 215 | 387 | 178 | 208 | 113 | 43 | 70 | 884 | 391 | 493 | ||||
2031 | 741 | 333 | 408 | 376 | 166 | 211 | 365 | 167 | 198 | 110 | 43 | 67 | 851 | 376 | 475 | ||||
2032 | 706 | 312 | 394 | 365 | 159 | 207 | 340 | 153 | 187 | 108 | 43 | 64 | 813 | 355 | 458 | ||||
2033 | 674 | 295 | 379 | 356 | 154 | 203 | 318 | 142 | 176 | 106 | 44 | 63 | 781 | 339 | 442 | ||||
2034 | 648 | 283 | 364 | 350 | 151 | 199 | 298 | 132 | 166 | 106 | 45 | 61 | 754 | 328 | 426 | ||||
2035 | 622 | 271 | 351 | 344 | 148 | 195 | 278 | 123 | 156 | 107 | 46 | 61 | 729 | 318 | 412 |
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年份 | 预测全国GDP/ 万亿元 | 预测全国人口/ 亿人 | 预测人均GDP/元 | 城镇生均公共财政预算 事业费支出(元/人) | 农村生均公共财政预算 事业费支出(元/人) | |||
初中 | 小学 | 初中 | 小学 | |||||
2020 | 103.05 | 13.95 | 73847 | 17029.27 | 11839.96 | 15590.45 | 11321.47 | |
2021 | 107.17 | 13.98 | 76676 | 17681.73 | 12293.59 | 16187.78 | 11755.23 | |
2022 | 111.46 | 13.99 | 79661 | 18370.09 | 12772.19 | 16817.98 | 12212.87 | |
2023 | 115.92 | 14.00 | 82810 | 19096.24 | 13277.06 | 17482.78 | 12695.64 | |
2024 | 120.55 | 14.00 | 86131 | 19862.03 | 13809.49 | 18183.86 | 13204.75 | |
2025 | 125.38 | 13.99 | 89631 | 20669.16 | 14370.67 | 18922.80 | 13741.35 | |
2026 | 130.39 | 13.97 | 93317 | 21519.21 | 14961.68 | 19701.03 | 14306.48 | |
2027 | 135.61 | 13.95 | 97198 | 22414.00 | 15583.80 | 20520.21 | 14901.36 | |
2028 | 141.03 | 13.92 | 101279 | 23355.30 | 16238.26 | 21381.98 | 15527.16 | |
2029 | 146.67 | 13.89 | 105571 | 24345.05 | 16926.40 | 22288.10 | 16185.17 | |
2030 | 152.54 | 13.86 | 110083 | 25385.33 | 17649.68 | 23240.50 | 16876.78 | |
2031 | 158.64 | 13.82 | 114822 | 26478.19 | 18409.52 | 24241.02 | 17603.34 | |
2032 | 164.99 | 13.77 | 119798 | 27625.69 | 19207.33 | 25291.56 | 18366.22 | |
2033 | 171.59 | 13.72 | 125020 | 28829.99 | 20044.66 | 26394.11 | 19166.87 | |
2034 | 178.45 | 13.67 | 130500 | 30093.56 | 20923.17 | 27550.91 | 20006.91 | |
2035 | 185.59 | 13.62 | 136249 | 31419.28 | 21844.91 | 28764.62 | 20888.29 |
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年份 | 城镇公共财政预算事业费支出 | 农村公共财政预算事业费支出 | 公共财政预算事业费支出 | ||||||||
总额 | 初中 | 小学 | 总额 | 初中 | 小学 | 总额 | 初中 | 小学 | |||
2020 | 15563.10 | 6854.47 | 8708.63 | 3232.35 | 849.51 | 2382.84 | 18795.45 | 7703.98 | 11091.47 | ||
2021 | 16530.90 | 7233.45 | 9297.45 | 3196.07 | 848.37 | 2347.70 | 19726.98 | 8081.82 | 11645.15 | ||
2022 | 17525.43 | 7545.91 | 9979.52 | 3179.26 | 844.74 | 2334.52 | 20704.69 | 8390.65 | 12314.04 | ||
2023 | 18596.15 | 7883.88 | 10712.28 | 3182.40 | 850.54 | 2331.86 | 21778.56 | 8734.42 | 13044.14 | ||
2024 | 19600.33 | 8311.77 | 11288.57 | 3171.57 | 873.28 | 2298.29 | 22771.90 | 9185.04 | 13586.85 | ||
2025 | 20575.25 | 8830.20 | 11745.06 | 3163.21 | 913.67 | 2249.54 | 23738.47 | 9743.86 | 13994.60 | ||
2026 | 21472.07 | 9361.19 | 12110.88 | 3161.66 | 965.04 | 2196.62 | 24633.73 | 10326.24 | 14307.50 | ||
2027 | 22243.83 | 9833.10 | 12410.73 | 3169.32 | 1021.84 | 2147.48 | 25413.15 | 10854.93 | 14558.21 | ||
2028 | 22944.58 | 10393.00 | 12551.58 | 3190.24 | 1101.27 | 2088.97 | 26134.82 | 11494.27 | 14640.55 | ||
2029 | 23541.98 | 10994.55 | 12547.43 | 3227.52 | 1201.03 | 2026.49 | 26769.50 | 12195.58 | 14573.92 | ||
2030 | 23942.05 | 11357.45 | 12584.60 | 3283.22 | 1292.12 | 1991.10 | 27225.28 | 12649.58 | 14575.70 | ||
2031 | 24010.27 | 11346.57 | 12663.71 | 3339.22 | 1356.89 | 1982.33 | 27349.49 | 12703.46 | 14646.03 | ||
2032 | 23841.16 | 11089.78 | 12751.38 | 3400.38 | 1405.45 | 1994.92 | 27241.54 | 12495.23 | 14746.30 | ||
2033 | 23771.93 | 10964.31 | 12807.62 | 3506.09 | 1483.11 | 2022.98 | 27278.02 | 12447.42 | 14830.60 | ||
2034 | 23834.76 | 10986.50 | 12848.26 | 3665.14 | 1595.80 | 2069.34 | 27499.91 | 12582.30 | 14917.61 | ||
2035 | 23891.86 | 10971.76 | 12920.10 | 3862.15 | 1719.99 | 2142.16 | 27754.01 | 12691.75 | 15062.26 |
"
年份 | 义务教育事业费增加值/亿元 | 义务教育事业费增加值变化率 | |||||
总额变化率 | 初中 | 小学 | 总额变化率 | 初中 | 小学 | ||
2020 | 187.53 | 78.40 | 109.13 | 1.00% | 1.02% | 0.98% | |
2021 | 185.81 | 78.30 | 107.52 | 0.94% | 0.97% | 0.92% | |
2022 | 184.87 | 77.96 | 106.91 | 0.89% | 0.93% | 0.87% | |
2023 | 185.29 | 78.50 | 106.79 | 0.85% | 0.90% | 0.82% | |
2024 | 185.85 | 80.59 | 105.25 | 0.82% | 0.88% | 0.77% | |
2025 | 187.34 | 84.32 | 103.02 | 0.79% | 0.87% | 0.74% | |
2026 | 189.66 | 89.06 | 100.60 | 0.77% | 0.86% | 0.70% | |
2027 | 192.65 | 94.30 | 98.35 | 0.76% | 0.87% | 0.68% | |
2028 | 197.30 | 101.64 | 95.67 | 0.75% | 0.88% | 0.65% | |
2029 | 203.65 | 110.84 | 92.81 | 0.76% | 0.91% | 0.64% | |
2030 | 210.44 | 119.25 | 91.19 | 0.77% | 0.94% | 0.63% | |
2031 | 216.01 | 125.23 | 90.78 | 0.79% | 0.99% | 0.62% | |
2032 | 221.07 | 129.71 | 91.36 | 0.81% | 1.04% | 0.62% | |
2033 | 229.52 | 136.87 | 92.65 | 0.84% | 1.10% | 0.62% | |
2034 | 242.04 | 147.27 | 94.77 | 0.88% | 1.17% | 0.64% | |
2035 | 256.84 | 158.74 | 98.10 | 0.93% | 1.25% | 0.65% |
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