华东师范大学学报(教育科学版) ›› 2020, Vol. 38 ›› Issue (8): 92-109.doi: 10.16382/j.cnki.1000-5560.2020.08.003

• “教育精准扶贫中随机干预实验的中国经验”专刊 • 上一篇    下一篇

打开教育政策研究的“黑盒子”——基于理论的影响评估在随机干预实验研究中的应用

汤蕾1, 马静1, 刘涵1, 岳爱1, 白钰1, 孟春2, 马成俊3   

  1. 1. 陕西师范大学教育实验经济研究所,西安,710119;
    2. 国务院发展研究中心宏观经济研究部,北京,100010;
    3. 青海民族大学法学院,西宁,810007
  • 发布日期:2020-08-14
  • 基金资助:
    高等学校学科创新引智计划(B16031);国家自然科学基金重点项目(71933003);国家自然科学基金项目(71703083,71703084,71803108);教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目(19YJC790080);陕西师范大学教师教育课题(JSJY2017019,JSJY2017020);陕西师范大学中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(20SZYB12)

Opening Up the “Black Box” of Education Policy Research: Application of Theory-Based Impact Evaluation in Randomized Controlled Trial Studies

Tang Lei1, Ma Jing1, Liu Han1, Yue Ai1, Bai Yu1, Meng Chun2, Ma Chengjun3   

  1. 1. The Center for Experimental Economics in Education, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi’an, 710119, China;
    2. Department of Macroeconomic Research, Development Research Center of the State Council, Beijing, 100010, China;
    3. Law School, Qinghai Nationalities University, Xining, 810007, China
  • Published:2020-08-14

摘要: 影响评估旨在了解政策对参与者福利的影响,其关键在于建立两者之间的因果关系(什么有效),了解政策的作用机制(为什么有效)。基于理论的影响评估(Theory-Based Impact Evaluation,TBIE)被普遍认为有助于回答“为什么有效”的问题。基于理论的影响评估通过建立从投入到产出再到影响的因果链,使用实证数据检验在因果链中有可能起作用的理论和潜在假设是否成立,达到厘清干预项目作用机理的目的。本文旨在回顾和总结基于理论的影响评估的核心概念和原理,并结合随机干预实验方法和具体实例,阐述在开展随机干预实验时,如何基于理论探索干预项目的作用机制。

关键词: 作用机制分析, 变化理论, 因果链, 影响评估

Abstract: Impact evalution aims to understand the impact of policies/interventions on the welfare of participants. The key is to establish a causal relationship between the two (what works) and to understand the mechanism of policies/interventions (why it works). Theory-based impact evaluation (TBIE) is widely believed to help answer the question of “why it works”. TBIE clarifies the intervention mechanisms by establishing a causal chain from input to output and then to impact, and using empirical data to test the validity of the theory and potential hypotheses that may play a role in the causal chain. This paper reviews and summarizes the core concepts and principles of TBIE, and uses examples to illustrate how to apply TBIE when conducting random controlled trials.

Key words: analysis of mechanism, theory of change, causal chain, impact evaluation