华东师范大学学报(教育科学版) ›› 2022, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (4): 1-15.doi: 10.16382/j.cnki.1000-5560.2022.04.001
• 特稿 •
黄斌1, 李波2
接受日期:
2022-01-12
出版日期:
2022-04-01
发布日期:
2022-03-29
基金资助:
Bin Huang1, Bo Li2
Accepted:
2022-01-12
Online:
2022-04-01
Published:
2022-03-29
摘要:
近三十年来,因果推断方法取得长足发展,已成为社会科学研究的主流量化方法,在教育量化研究中亦有着非常广泛的应用。2021年,诺贝尔经济学奖授予戴维?卡德、乔舒亚?D?安格里斯特与吉多?W?因本斯,以表彰他们在推动因果推断方法发展与应用方面所做出的贡献。本文以此为切入点,先讨论教育研究兼具人文关怀和科学理性的双重属性,阐明获取有效的因果证据对推动教育科学研究发展的重要意义,再详细介绍诺奖得主在教育收益率、小班化教学效果、学校投入对学生认知能力发展的影响等方面所取得的重要研究成果,最后对当前我国教育因果推断研究所存在的问题进行讨论并提出建议。
黄斌, 李波. 因果推断、科学证据与教育研究——兼论2021年诺贝尔经济学奖得主的教育研究[J]. 华东师范大学学报(教育科学版), 2022, 40(4): 1-15.
Bin Huang, Bo Li. Causal Inference, Scientific Evidence, and Educational Research: Discussion on the Educational Research of Nobel Laureates in Economics in 2021[J]. Journal of East China Normal University(Educational Sciences), 2022, 40(4): 1-15.
陈云松, 范晓光 社会学定量分析中的内生性问题测估社会互动的因果效应研究综述 社会 2010 4 91 117 陈云松, 范晓光. (2010). 社会学定量分析中的内生性问题测估社会互动的因果效应研究综述. 社会,(4),91—117. | |
哈巍, 余韧哲. (2017) 学校改革, 价值几何——基于北京市义务教育综合改革的"学区房"溢价估计. 北京大学教育评论, 15(3): 137−53. | |
胡咏梅, 唐一鹏 公共政策或项目的因果效应评估方法及其应用 华中师范大学学报(人文社会科学版) 2018 3 168 181 胡咏梅, 唐一鹏. (2018). 公共政策或项目的因果效应评估方法及其应用. 华中师范大学学报(人文社会科学版),(3),168—181. | |
黄斌, 方超, 汪栋 教育研究中的因果关系推断——相关方法原理与实例应用 华东师范大学学报(教育科学版) 2017 4 1 14 黄斌, 方超, 汪栋. (2017). 教育研究中的因果关系推断—相关方法原理与实例应用. 华东师范大学学报(教育科学版),(4),1—14. | |
黄斌, 苗晶晶, 金俊 “新机制”改革对农村中小学公用经费的因果效应分析——基于准实验研究设计 中国教育学刊 2017 11 38 46 黄斌, 苗晶晶, 金俊. (2017). “新机制”改革对农村中小学公用经费的因果效应分析—基于准实验研究设计. 中国教育学刊,11,38—46. | |
黄斌, 云如先, 范雯 名校及其分校质量对学区房的溢价效应: 声望效应与升学效应 北京大学教育评论 2019 17 3 107 29 黄斌, 云如先, 范雯. (2019). 名校及其分校质量对学区房的溢价效应: 声望效应与升学效应. 北京大学教育评论,17(3),107—29. | |
李波, 黄斌 破解教育生产“黑箱”: 教育生产函数研究的评述与展望 华东师范大学学报(教育科学版) 2020 9 137 161 李波, 黄斌. (2020). 破解教育生产“黑箱”: 教育生产函数研究的评述与展望. 华东师范大学学报(教育科学版),(9),137—161. | |
平克. (2019) 当下的启蒙: 为理性、科学、人文主义和进步辩护 . 杭州: 浙江人民出版社. | |
珀尔, 麦肯齐. (2019). 为什么: 关于因果关系的新科学. 北京: 中信出版社. | |
森. (2002). 以自由看待发展. 北京: 中国人民大学出版社. | |
孙志军, 杜育红, 李婷婷. (2010) 义务教育财政改革: 增量效果与分配效果. 北京大学教育评论, (1): 83−100. | |
魏建国 教育事权与财政支出责任划分的法治化——基于一个理解框架的分析 北京大学教育评论 2019 17 1 74 90 魏建国. (2019). 教育事权与财政支出责任划分的法治化—基于一个理解框架的分析. 北京大学教育评论,17(1),74—90. | |
辛涛, 姜宇 教育科学的因果推论: 困境与超越 清华大学教育研究 2013 3 1 6 辛涛, 姜宇. (2013). 教育科学的因果推论: 困境与超越. 清华大学教育研究,(3),1—6.
doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-4519.2013.03.001 |
|
休谟. (1957). 人类理解研究. 北京: 商务印书馆. | |
亚里士多德. (1982). 物理学. 北京: 商务印书馆. | |
袁振国 实证研究是教育学走向科学的必要途径 华东师范大学学报(教育科学版) 2017 3 4 17 袁振国. (2017). 实证研究是教育学走向科学的必要途径. 华东师范大学学报(教育科学版),(3),4—17. | |
袁振国 科学问题与教育学知识增长 教育研究 2019 4 4 14 袁振国. (2019). 科学问题与教育学知识增长. 教育研究,(4),4—14. | |
袁振国 教育规律与教育规律研究 华东师范大学学报(教育科学版) 2020 9 1 15 袁振国. (2020). 教育规律与教育规律研究. 华东师范大学学报(教育科学版),(9),1—15. | |
中室牧子. (2017). 学力经济学: 被数据推翻的教育准则. 北京: 中国人民大学出版社. | |
Angrist, J. D., & Krueger, A. B Does compulsory school attendance affect schooling and earnings? Quarterly Journal of Economics 1991 106 4 979 1014 Angrist, J. D., & Krueger, A. B. (1991). Does compulsory school attendance affect schooling and earnings?. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 106(4), 979—1014.
doi: 10.2307/2937954 |
|
Angrist, J. D., & Lavy, V Using Maimonides' rule to estimate the effect of class size on scholastic achievement The Quarterly Journal of Economics 1999 114 2 533 575 Angrist, J. D., & Lavy, V. (1999). Using Maimonides' rule to estimate the effect of class size on scholastic achievement. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 114(2), 533—575.
doi: 10.1162/003355399556061 |
|
Angrist, J. D., Dynarski, S. M., Kane, T. J., Pathak, P. A., & Walters, C. R Who Benefits from KIPP? Journal of Policy Analysis and Management 2012 31 4 837 860 Angrist, J. D., Dynarski, S. M., Kane, T. J., Pathak, P. A., & Walters, C. R. (2012). Who Benefits from KIPP?. Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, 31(4), 837—860.
doi: 10.1002/pam.21647 |
|
Baron, R., & Kenny, D. A The moderator–mediator variable distinction in social psychological research: Conceptual, strategic, and statistical considerations Journal of personality and social psychology 1986 51 6 1173 1182 Baron, R., & Kenny, D. A. (1986). The moderator–mediator variable distinction in social psychological research: Conceptual, strategic, and statistical considerations. Journal of personality and social psychology, 51(6), 1173—1182.
doi: 10.1037/0022-3514.51.6.1173 |
|
Becker, G. S A theory of marriage: part I Journal of Political Economy 1973 81 4 813 846 Becker, G. S. (1973). A theory of marriage: part I. Journal of Political Economy, 81(4), 813—846.
doi: 10.1086/260084 |
|
Bound, J., & Solon, G. Double trouble: on the value of twins-based estimation of the return to schooling Economics of Education Review 1999 18 2 169 182 Bound, J., & Solon, G. (1999). Double trouble: on the value of twins-based estimation of the return to schooling. Economics of Education Review, 18(2), 169—182.
doi: 10.1016/S0272-7757(98)00048-X |
|
Buss, D. M Human mate selection American Scientist 1986 73 1 47 51 Buss, D. M. (1986). Human mate selection. American Scientist, 73(1), 47—51. | |
Card, D., & Krueger, A. B Does school quality matter? Returns to education and the characteristics of public schools in the United States Journal of Political Economy 1992 100 1 1 40 Card, D., & Krueger, A. B. (1992). Does school quality matter? Returns to education and the characteristics of public schools in the United States. Journal of Political Economy, 100(1), 1—40.
doi: 10.1086/261805 |
|
Card, D., & Krueger, A. B School resources and student outcomes: an overview of the literature and new evidence from North and South Carolina Journal of Economic Perspectives 1996 10 4 31 50 Card, D., & Krueger, A. B. (1996). School resources and student outcomes: an overview of the literature and new evidence from North and South Carolina. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 10(4), 31—50.
doi: 10.1257/jep.10.4.31 |
|
Clark, D Selective schools and academic achievement The BE Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy 2010 10 1 1 40 Clark, D. (2010). Selective schools and academic achievement. The BE Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, 10(1), 1—40. | |
Coleman, J. S., Hobson, E. Q., McPartland, J., Mood, A. M., Neinfeld, F. D., & York, R. L. (1966). Equality of educational opportunity. Washington, DC: U. S. Department of Health, Education and Welfare. | |
Ding, Y., Lu, F., & Ye, X Intergovernmental transfer under heterogeneous accountabilities: the effects of the 2006 Chinese Education Finance Reform Economics of Education Review 2020 77 101985 Ding, Y., Lu, F., & Ye, X. (2020). Intergovernmental transfer under heterogeneous accountabilities: the effects of the 2006 Chinese Education Finance Reform. Economics of Education Review, 77, 101985.
doi: 10.1016/j.econedurev.2020.101985 |
|
Fredriksson, P. (2021). Award ceremony speech. Retrieved from https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/economic-sciences/2021/ceremony-speech/. | |
Fisher, R. A., & Mackenzie, W. A Studies in corp variation II the manurial response of different potato varieties. The Journal of Agricultural Science 1923 V 13 311 320 Fisher, R. A., & Mackenzie, W. A. (1923). Studies in corp variation II. the manurial response of different potato varieties. The Journal of Agricultural Science, V(13), 311—320. | |
Glewwe, P. W., Hanushek, E. A., Humpage, S. D., & Ravina, R. (2011). School resources and educational outcomes in developing countries: a review of the literature from 1990 to 2010. National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper. | |
Greenwald, R., Hedges, L. V., & Laine, R. D Interpreting research on school resources and student achievement: a rejoinder to Hanushek Review of Educational Research 1996a 66 3 411 416 Greenwald, R., Hedges, L. V., & Laine, R. D. (1996a). Interpreting research on school resources and student achievement: a rejoinder to Hanushek. Review of Educational Research, 66(3), 411—416.
doi: 10.3102/00346543066003411 |
|
Greenwald, R., Hedges, L. V., & Laine, R. D The effect of school resources on student achievement Review of Educational Research 1996b 66 3 361 396 Greenwald, R., Hedges, L. V., & Laine, R. D. (1996b). The effect of school resources on student achievement. Review of Educational Research, 66(3), 361—396.
doi: 10.3102/00346543066003361 |
|
Griliches, Z Estimating the returns to schooling: some econometric problems Econometrica 1977 45 1 22 Griliches, Z. (1977). Estimating the returns to schooling: some econometric problems. Econometrica, 45, 1—22.
doi: 10.2307/1913285 |
|
Hanushek, E. A The economics of schooling: production and efficiency in public schools Journal of Economic Literature 1986 24 3 1141 1177 Hanushek, E. A. (1986). The economics of schooling: production and efficiency in public schools. Journal of Economic Literature, 24(3), 1141—1177. | |
Hanushek, E. A The Impact of Differential Expenditures on School Performance Educational Researcher 1989 18 4 45 62 Hanushek, E. A. (1989). The Impact of Differential Expenditures on School Performance. Educational Researcher, 18(4), 45—62.
doi: 10.3102/0013189X018004045 |
|
Hanushek, E. A Assessing the effects of school resources on student performance: an update Educational Evaluation and Policy Analysis 1997 19 2 141 164 Hanushek, E. A. (1997). Assessing the effects of school resources on student performance: an update. Educational Evaluation and Policy Analysis, 19(2), 141—164.
doi: 10.3102/01623737019002141 |
|
Hanushek, E. A The failure of input−based schooling policies The Economic Journal 2003 113 485 64 98 Hanushek, E. A. (2003). The failure of input−based schooling policies. The Economic Journal, 113(485), 64—98.
doi: 10.1111/1468-0297.00099 |
|
Hayes, A. F. (2018). Introduction to mediation, moderation, and conditional process analysis: a regression-based approach (Second ed. ). New York: The Guilford Press. | |
Huang, B., Gao, M., Xu, C., & Zhu, Y The impact of Province-Managing-County fiscal reform on primary education in China China Economic Review 2017 45 45 61 Huang, B., Gao, M., Xu, C., & Zhu, Y. (2017). The impact of Province-Managing-County fiscal reform on primary education in China. China Economic Review, 45, 45—61.
doi: 10.1016/j.chieco.2017.06.001 |
|
Heckman, J. J Sample selection bias as a specification error Econometrica 1979 47 1 153 161 Heckman, J. J. (1979). Sample selection bias as a specification error. Econometrica, 47(1), 153—161.
doi: 10.2307/1912352 |
|
Heckman, J. J Skill formation and the economics of investing in disadvantaged children Science 2006 312 5782 1900 1902 Heckman, J. J. (2006). Skill formation and the economics of investing in disadvantaged children. Science, 312(5782), 1900—1902.
doi: 10.1126/science.1128898 |
|
Hedges, L. V., Laine, R. D., & Greenwald, R Does money matter? A meta-analysis of studies of the effects of differential school inputs on student outcomes Educational Researcher 1994a 23 3 5 14 Hedges, L. V., Laine, R. D., & Greenwald, R. (1994a). Does money matter? A meta-analysis of studies of the effects of differential school inputs on student outcomes. Educational Researcher, 23(3), 5—14. | |
Hedges, L. V., Laine, R. D., & Greenwald, R Money does matter somewhere: a reply to Hanushek Educational Researcher 1994b 23 4 9 10 Hedges, L. V., Laine, R. D., & Greenwald, R. (1994b). Money does matter somewhere: a reply to Hanushek. Educational Researcher, 23(4), 9—10.
doi: 10.3102/0013189X023004009 |
|
Hume, D. (2007). An enquiry concerning human understanding . Oxford: Oxford University Press. | |
Imai, K., Keele, L., & Yamamoto, D. T Unpacking the black box of causality: learning about causal mechanisms from experimental and observational studies American Political Science Review 2011 105 4 765 789 Imai, K., Keele, L., & Yamamoto, D. T. (2011). Unpacking the black box of causality: learning about causal mechanisms from experimental and observational studies. American Political Science Review, 105(4), 765—789.
doi: 10.1017/S0003055411000414 |
|
Imbens, G. W., & Rubin, D. B. (2015). Causal inference for statistics, social, and biomedical science: an introduction. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. | |
King, G., Keohane, R. O., & Verba, S. (2021). Designing social inquiry: scientific inference in qualitative research (New ed. ). Princeton: Princeton University Press. | |
King, G., & Nielsen, R. A. Why propensity scores should not be used for matching Political Analysis 2019 27 4 1 20 King, G., & Nielsen, R. A. (2019). Why propensity scores should not be used for matching. Political Analysis, 27(4), 1—20. | |
Laine, R. D., Greenwald, R., & Hedges, L. V. (1996). Money does matter: A research synthesis of a new universe of education production function studies. In L. Picus & J. Wattenbarger (Eds. ), Where Does the Money Go? Resource Allocation in Elementary and Secondary Schools (pp. 44-70). Thousand Oaks, CA: Corwin Press. | |
Mincer, J. (1974). Education, experience and earnings. New York, Columbia University Press. | |
Nelson, C. A., & Margaret A, S. (2011). Lessons from neuroscience research for understanding causal links between family and neighborhood characteristics and educational outcomes. In G. J. Duncan & R. J. Murnane (Eds. ), Whither opportunity? Rising inequality, schools, and children's life chances. New York: Russell Sage Foundation. | |
Rosenbaum, P. R. (2002). Observational studies (2nd ed. ). New York: Springer. |
[1] | 姜勇, 柳佳炜, 戴乃恩. 论教育研究的现象学范式与实证主义范式的差异[J]. 华东师范大学学报(教育科学版), 2018, 36(6): 61-68+156. |
[2] | 褚宏启. 中国教育发展方式的转变:路径选择与内生发展[J]. 华东师范大学学报(教育科学版), 2018, 36(1): 1-14+159. |
[3] | 李政涛. 当代教育研究的视频与图像转向——兼论视频图像时代的教育理论生产[J]. 华东师范大学学报(教育科学版), 2017, 35(5): 1-12+159. |
[4] | 黄斌, 方超, 汪栋. 教育研究中的因果关系推断——相关方法原理与实例应用[J]. 华东师范大学学报(教育科学版), 2017, 35(4): 1-14+134. |
[5] | 刘善槐. 农村教育问题驱动下的量化研究[J]. 华东师范大学学报(教育科学版), 2017, 35(3): 57-63+169. |
[6] | 姚计海. 教育实证研究方法的范式问题与反思[J]. 华东师范大学学报(教育科学版), 2017, 35(3): 64-71+169+170. |
[7] | 姜勇, 戴乃恩. 论“基于证据”的教育研究的限度——“文化存在论教育学”的视角[J]. 华东师范大学学报(教育科学版), 2017, 35(3): 72-79+170. |
[8] | 余庆. 论教育研究方法论的情境生成[J]. 华东师范大学学报(教育科学版), 2015, 33(1): 26-30. |
[9] | 刘燕楠. 话语分析的逻辑:谬误与澄清 ——当前教育研究中话语分析的教育学审视[J]. 华东师范大学学报(教育科学版), 2015, 33(1): 51-59. |
[10] | 荀渊. 美国教师专业教育的兴起与困境[J]. 华东师范大学学报(教育科学版), 2013, 31(3): 85-91. |
[11] | 王占魁. 阿普尔批判教育研究的理论来源[J]. 华东师范大学学报(教育科学版), 2012, 30(2): 10-18. |
[12] | 闫 旭 蕾. 谈教育研究的语言之维[J]. 华东师范大学学报(教育科学版), 2009, 27(2): 38-46. |
[13] | 江玲 石宜君. 论中小学教育研究目的的人文取向——基于理解教育研究视角[J]. 华东师范大学学报(教育科学版), 2009, 27(2): 30-37. |
[14] | 闫旭蕾. 谈“隐身”与“显身”的教育研究[J]. 华东师范大学学报(教育科学版), 2007, 25(3): 17-27. |
阅读次数 | ||||||
全文 |
|
|||||
摘要 |
|
|||||