扩招背景下新增本科院校如何影响城市收入差距？

doi:10.16382/j.cnki.1000-5560.2023.10.011

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

始于1999年的高校扩招加速了中国向人力资源大国的转变，随之兴起的新建本科院校热潮也对城市收入差距产生影响。基于中国278个城市的本科院校数据和夜间灯光数据的双重差分估计发现：（1）高校扩招后拥有公办本科院校的内陆城市收入差距趋于缩小，并且政策影响具有较长衰减周期。平行趋势检验、安慰剂检验、剔除城市规模因素和控制毕业生跨区就业影响等稳健性检验依然支持该结论。（2）相较公办本科院校，民办本科院校对中国城市收入差距缩小的贡献尚未显现。（3）人力资本积累、职工平均工资提升和技术创新能力增强是新增本科院校抑制收入差距的内在机制。（4）拥有重点本科院校的城市收入差距缩减效应更显著，“双一流”建设衡量的高教资源再配置是调节收入分配的有益政策。上述结论对优化高等教育资源的空间配置具有重要启示，也为实现区域共同富裕的路径选择提供经验依据。

关键词: 高校扩招, 本科院校, 收入差距, 双重差分估计

Abstract:

The expansion of college enrollment, which began in 1999, accelerated the transformation of China into a country with large human resources. The upsurge of newly-established colleges has also affected the urban income distribution. Based on the college data of 278 cities in China and the nighttime lighting data, this study found that, first, with the expansion of colleges, the income disparity in inland cities with public college has been significantly reduced, and the impact of policies has a longer decay period. Robustness tests such as parallel trend test, placebo test, eliminating the factors of city size and controlling the influence of graduates’ cross-regional employment still support this conclusion. Second, compared with public colleges, the contribution of private colleges to narrowing the urban income disparity in China has not yet been revealed. Third, the accumulation of human capital, the increase in the average wage of staff and the enhancement of technological innovation ability are the internal mechanisms for the newly-added colleges to curb the income disparity. Finally, the effect of narrowing the urban income disparity with key colleges is more significant. The reallocation of higher education resources measured by the construction of first-class universities and disciplines of the world is a beneficial policy to adjust the income distribution. The above conclusions have important implications for how to optimize the spatial allocation of higher education resources, and also provide a basis for realizing the path of regional common prosperity.

Key words: enrollment expansion, undergraduate colleges, income disparity, difference-in-differences model

金培振, 刘昕妍, 王思语. 扩招背景下新增本科院校如何影响城市收入差距？[J]. 华东师范大学学报(教育科学版), 2023, 41(10): 131-149.

Peizhen Jin, Xinyan Liu, Siyu Wang. How Undergraduate Colleges Affect Urban Income Disparity under the Background of Enrollment Expansion[J]. Journal of East China Normal University(Educational Sciences), 2023, 41(10): 131-149.

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	样本量	均值	标准差	最小值	最大值	p25	p50	p75
城市GINI系数	7150	0.46	0.16	0.02	0.93	0.34	0.46	0.58
城市高校数量	7254	6.05	10.65	0.00	84.00	1.00	3.00	5.00
实际利用FDI金额	6975	0.02	0.04	0.00	0.63	0.00	0.01	0.03
产业结构高级化	7120	0.90	0.45	0.09	5.35	0.63	0.80	1.05
社会零售品销售额	7025	298.51	696.71	1.46	9551.57	31.84	88.86	258.57
教育占财政支出比重	7140	0.20	0.06	0.01	1.92	0.16	0.19	0.23
城市人口数量	7156	402.31	245.01	12.44	2095.00	224.00	349.34	547.04

	(1)		(2)		(3)
	全部样本		沿海省份城市		内陆省份城市
高校扩招后是否拥有公办本科院校	?0.009 (0.006)	?0.012^** (0.006)	?0.004 (0.013)	?0.006 (0.012)	?0.012^* (0.006)	?0.015^** (0.006)
高等院校数量	?0.004^***	?0.004^***	?0.008^***	?0.006^***	?0.002^***	?0.002^***
	(0.000)	(0.000)	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.000)	(0.000)
外商直接投资		0.568^***		0.743^***		?0.114
		(0.054)		(0.080)		(0.099)
产业高级化		0.035^***		0.039^**		0.035^***
		(0.007)		(0.015)		(0.007)
市场需求潜力		0.008		0.023^**		?0.005
		(0.006)		(0.010)		(0.007)
教育占财政支出比重		?0.059		?0.205^**		0.051
		(0.045)		(0.087)		(0.050)
城市人口数		?0.048^***		?0.031^*		?0.051^***
		(0.006)		(0.018)		(0.006)
常数项	?0.693^***	?0.574^***	?0.903^***	?1.047^***	?0.582^***	?0.297^***
	(0.007)	(0.075)	(0.015)	(0.164)	(0.008)	(0.083)
城市固定效应	控制	控制	控制	控制	控制	控制
时间固定效应	控制	控制	控制	控制	控制	控制
N	7149	6647	2470	2360	4679	4287
adj. R²	0.412	0.425	0.402	0.419	0.442	0.448

	全部城市			内陆城市
	在岗职工平均工资	人力资本积累	技术创新能力	在岗职工平均工资	人力资本积累	技术创新能力
高校扩招后是否拥有公办本科院校	0.025^***	0.142^***	0.130^***	0.033^***	0.119^***	0.136^***
高校扩招后是否拥有公办本科院校	(0.008)	(0.022)	(0.024)	(0.010)	(0.026)	(0.028)
高等院校数量	?0.000	0.007^***	0.004^**	?0.000	0.007^***	0.004^*
	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.002)	(0.002)
外商直接投资	0.965^***	?0.776^***	?0.052	0.196	0.893^**	1.145^***
	(0.075)	(0.203)	(0.209)	(0.153)	(0.383)	(0.440)
产业高级化	?0.005	?0.063^**	?0.105^***	?0.007	?0.185^***	?0.165^***
	(0.010)	(0.027)	(0.026)	(0.011)	(0.033)	(0.031)
市场需求潜力	0.022^***	0.052^**	0.385^***	0.021^**	0.015	0.229^***
	(0.008)	(0.022)	(0.022)	(0.010)	(0.028)	(0.029)
教育支出占财政支出比重	?0.491^***	?0.049	?0.718^***	?0.473^***	0.339^*	0.086
教育支出占财政支出比重	(0.063)	(0.158)	(0.174)	(0.077)	(0.195)	(0.220)
城市人口数	?0.013	0.061^***	0.032	?0.008	0.023	0.075^***
	(0.009)	(0.021)	(0.024)	(0.010)	(0.023)	(0.027)
常数项	8.358^***	7.318^***	?0.513^*	8.294^***	7.769^***	0.712^*
	(0.108)	(0.286)	(0.298)	(0.129)	(0.347)	(0.365)
N	6645	5479	6711	4251	3441	4309
adj. R²	0.966	0.845	0.906	0.969	0.848	0.906

	样本中剔除省会城市
	(1)	(2)	(3)
	全部样本	沿海地区城市	内陆地区城市
高校扩招后是否拥有公办本科院校	?0.012^*	?0.006	?0.015^**
	(0.006)	(0.013)	(0.007)
高等院校数量	?0.010^***	?0.015^***	0.001
	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.002)
外商直接投资	0.608^***	0.806^***	?0.050
	(0.059)	(0.084)	(0.108)
产业高级化	0.036^***	0.037^**	0.032^***
	(0.007)	(0.017)	(0.008)
市场需求潜力	0.015^***	0.045^***	?0.004
	(0.006)	(0.011)	(0.007)
教育支出占财政支出比重	?0.051	?0.223^**	0.033
	(0.048)	(0.091)	(0.054)
城市人口数	?0.054^***	?0.058^***	?0.052^***
	(0.006)	(0.019)	(0.007)
常数项	?0.632^***	?1.159^***	?0.312^***
	(0.079)	(0.171)	(0.087)
N	5998	2160	3838
adj. R²	0.403	0.411	0.421

	(1) 考虑民办高校第一种情况：将民办本科院校设置情况纳入整体回归	(2) 考虑民办高校第二种情况：仅有民办本科高校的城市样本作为处理组	(3) 考虑民办高校第三种情况：仅有民办本科高校的城市样本为处理组，且样本为内陆城市
高校扩招后是否拥有公办本科院校	?0.006 (0.006)	?0.031 (0.020)	0.015 (0.027)
高等院校数量	?0.004^***	?0.002	?0.010^*
	(0.000)	(0.004)	(0.006)
外商直接投资	0.569^***	0.864^***	0.174
	(0.054)	(0.159)	(0.203)
产业高级化	0.035^***	0.055^***	0.033^**
	(0.007)	(0.015)	(0.016)
市场需求潜力	0.008	0.004	?0.031^*
	(0.006)	(0.014)	(0.016)
教育占财政支出比重	?0.056	?0.042	?0.130
	(0.045)	(0.109)	(0.137)
城市人口数	?0.048^***	?0.151^***	?0.020
	(0.006)	(0.035)	(0.035)
常数项	?0.571^***	?0.076	?0.188
	(0.075)	(0.246)	(0.253)
N	6647	1375	927
adj. R²	0.424	0.302	0.313