基于学生成绩的教师教学质量及其经济价值

doi:10.16382/j.cnki.1000-5560.2022.03.008

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

本文利用学生成绩残差分解方法探讨了教师教学质量及其经济价值问题。笔者利用误差相关模型预测学生成绩，将学生成绩的预测值与学生所在班级成绩的均分相减得到残差值，通过对残差值在班级层面加总平均，以此作为教师教学质量的代理变量。文章基于课题组在湖北和广东两省22个县区收集的数据，探讨了语文、数学和英语三科教师教学质量的差异及其对应的经济价值，其基本结论是：第一，教师教学质量存在较大个体差异，将中等水平的教师替换为69分位的“好教师”后，全班学生的三科成绩可以增值0.2-0.3个标准差，相当于学生一年的学习收获；若将中等水平的教师替换为前16%的“优秀教师”，全班成绩整体提高0.3-0.5个标准差。第二，教学质量高的教师能释放巨大的经济能量，若将“好教师”教的班级交给一个中等水平的教师，一个规模为49人的班级的全班学生毕业后在劳动力市场上的终身收入损失的总现值约为11万-24万元；“好教师”职业生涯中为其教过的所有学生带来的收入溢价的保守估价是425万元。本研究为评价教师教学绩效及高质量教师的经济价值提供了技术分析策略和操作路径。

关键词: 教学绩效, 残差分析, 高质量教师的经济价值

Abstract:

Error-component analysists argue that residuals generated by subtracting predicted values of test scores from the unconditional class-level mean and then aggregated at the class level can be regarded as teacher effectiveness. The paper tests this argument by using self-collected teacher-student matched data from 22 counties or districts in Hubei province and Guangdong province. Correlated random effect model (CRE) is employed to predict students’ test scores residuals, main findings of this paper are listed as below: (1) there are huge differences among teachers in terms of teaching performance, if a teacher of average quality is replaced by a colleague at 69 percentile whom Hanushek called “a good teacher”, the whole class will witness a net achievement gain of 0.2-0.3 standard deviations depending on which subject is under concern, the effect of which is equivalent to one-year acquisition of knowledge and skills. If he or she is replaced by a “great teacher” standing on the top 16% of the teaching performance distribution, test scores of the class will boost by 0.3-0.5 standard deviations. (2) The economic value of quality teachers is enormous, if a class of 49 students taught by a good teacher is assigned to an average teacher, the present value of earnings losses suffered by the whole cohort of students is between 110 thousand RMB and 240 thousand RMB. By our conservative estimation, the monetary value of a good instructor’s teaching is worth of at least 4.25 million more than a mediocre one across his or her 38-year career life. The article shades light on how to evaluate and value teaching performance.

Key words: teaching performance, residual analysis, economic value of quality teachers

雷万鹏, 马红梅. 基于学生成绩的教师教学质量及其经济价值[J]. 华东师范大学学报(教育科学版), 2022, 40(3): 89-98.

Wanpeng Lei, Hongmei Ma. Evaluate and Value Teaching Performance Based on Students’ Achievement[J]. Journal of East China Normal University(Educational Sciences), 2022, 40(3): 89-98.

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	C	M	E
解释变量	（1）	（2）	（3）
C		0.3857^***	0.4286^***
		（0.0214）	（0.0219）
M	0.3894^***		0.5073^***
	（0.0221）		（0.0214）
E	0.4329^***	0.4528^***
	（0.0213）	（0.0200）
其他控制变量	√	√	√
调整R²		0.4829
N		1618

变量名	变量的含义	均值	标准差	最小值	最大值	N
A_C	二次标准化为均值是70标准差是10的语文分数	72.265	9.637	41.259	92.052	1047
$ {\widehat{{ \epsilon }}}_{{i}^{\text{'}},C} $	学生语文预测成绩与班级均值之残差	?0.513	7.935	?21.191	30.843	863
$ {\overline{\widehat{{ \epsilon }}}}_{{i}^{\text{'}},C} $	将 $ {\widehat{{ \epsilon }}}_{{i}^{\text{'}},C} $ 加总到班级后的教师教学质量	0.172	5.419	?11.043	16.587	42
	$ {\overline{\widehat{{ \epsilon }}}}_{{i}^{\text{'}},C} $ 大于零的教师比例	0.629	0.487	0	1	42
A_M	二次标准化为均值是70标准差是10的数学分数	70.286	9.542	40.185	89.776	1045
$ {\widehat{{ \epsilon }}}_{{i}^{\text{'}},M} $	学生数学预测成绩与班级均值之残差	0.012	7.273	?17.452	23.562	832
$ {\overline{\widehat{{ \epsilon }}}}_{{i}^{\text{'}},M} $	将 $ {\widehat{{ \epsilon }}}_{{i}^{\text{'}},M} $ 加总到班级后的教师教学质量	?0.256	4.778	?7.388	15.789	40
	$ {\overline{\widehat{{ \epsilon }}}}_{{i}^{\text{'}},M} $ 大于零的教师比例	0.645	0.482	0	1	40
A_E	二次标准化为均值是70标准差是10的英语分数	69.494	10.043	49.157	90.899	1089
$ {\widehat{{ \epsilon }}}_{{i}^{\text{'}},E} $	学生英语预测成绩与班级均值之残差	0.194	8.100	?28.340	29.818	878
$ {\overline{\widehat{{ \epsilon }}}}_{{i}^{\text{'}},E} $	将 $ {\widehat{{ \epsilon }}}_{{i}^{\text{'}},E} $ 加总到班级后的教师教学质量	?1.187	5.765	?13.557	12.061	38
	$ {\overline{\widehat{{ \epsilon }}}}_{{i}^{\text{'}},E} $ 大于零的教师比例	0.677	0.471	0	1	38

学科	均值	均值-P60	均值-P69	均值-P84	P10-均值
	(1)	(2)	(3)	（4）	（5）
C	0.018	0.002	0.198	0.594	0.556
M	?0.027	0.117	0.157	0.362	0.618
E	?0.118	0.262	0.334	0.571	0.940

		全班学生终身总收入增值部分的现值				单个学生终身总收入增值部分的现值
班级规模	学科	均值-最差	均值-P69	均值-P69	最差-最好	均值-最差	均值-P69	均值-P69	最差-最好
最小(33人)	C	26.641	9.487	0.096	50.523	0.807	0.287	0.003	4.163
	M	29.612	7.523	5.606	42.802	0.897	0.228	0.170	3.527
	E	45.040	16.004	12.554	44.950	1.365	0.485	0.380	3.704
最大(64人)	C	51.667	18.399	0.186	97.984	0.807	0.287	0.003	4.163
	M	57.429	14.589	10.872	83.011	0.897	0.228	0.170	3.527
	E	87.351	31.037	24.347	87.176	1.365	0.485	0.380	3.704
均值(49人)	C	39.558	14.087	0.142	75.019	0.807	0.287	0.003	4.163
	M	43.969	11.170	8.324	63.555	0.897	0.228	0.170	3.527
	E	66.878	23.763	18.640	66.744	1.365	0.485	0.380	3.704