Abstract:

The development of education should be forward-looking. Under the guidance of China’s Education Modernization 2035 Plan, it is necessary to conduct research on the change of the school-age population and the allocation of educational resources during the period of 2020—2035. The queue element method based on Leslie matrix and interview were adopted to predict the number of students, schools, teachers and the required funds of compulsory education during the period of 2020—2035. The results showed that: compared with 2020, the total number of students in compulsory education will drop by 30 million in 2035. Based on the current school size, 5,000 new primary schools should be built until 2026, with 4,000 new middle schools should be built until 2030. A large number of primary schools in rural areas will lie idle (37.3 thousand); Based on the current teacher-student ratio, the demand for full-time teachers in compulsory education is decreasing, with a surplus of about 1.49 million primary school teachers and 370 thousand junior high school teachers. In 2031, the number of compulsory education students in urban areas will exceed that in townships, and compulsory education will generally enter an era dominated by urban education. The transfer of students from rural areas to townships and urban areas should be fully considered, while it is suggested to plan the distribution of schools scientifically, improve the school-running standards, reduce the student-teacher ratio and the class size, optimize the allocation of teacher resources between preschool, nursery education and compulsory education.

Key words: modernization of education, compulsory education, resource allocation, population projection