“双减”能消除学科类校外培训需求吗？——基于有限理性视角的实证研究

doi:10.16382/j.cnki.1000-5560.2023.09.005

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

2021年7月以来，“双减”工作持续推进，校外培训经历了最严治理，意在减轻学生和家长负担。全国家长问卷调查显示部分家长依然坚持为孩子寻求学科类校外培训。访谈资料表明，课后看护型、日常辅导型等需求能被学校课后服务较好地吸纳；但“双减”对学生教育成长路径没有实质性影响，继续使用学科类校外培训是很多家长基于有限理性的决策，升学择校型、培养优势型、未来发展型等需求会长期存在。因供给锐减，被挤压出的培训需求部分转向了地下，培训价格上涨而品质难保证，部分家庭因需求被抑制而产生的不满情绪可能成为治理的阻力。为持续推进“双减”，学科类校外培训治理必须关照到需求侧：当前应正视合理的校外培训需求，指导家长理性选择和使用培训服务，并积极利用公共教育资源吸纳其部分需求；长远来看，想切实消减家长校外培训需求还是应着力促进义教校际均衡、推进中高考改革、提升职教吸引力。

关键词: “双减”, 校外培训, 需求, 有限理性, 效用

Abstract:

In July2021, Chinese government issued the “Double Reduction” policy and started to regulate private tutoring very strictly, seeking significant reduction in its scale. Based on a nationwide parents questionnaire survey, this paper reported that parents welcomed most regulative measures but some of them still demanded academic tutoring. From semi-structured interview, it was found that some types of demand like the one for after-school care would be reduced since schools offered after-school program, but others might not be easily cut down. The new policy had few substantial impacts on students’ educational growth path. Therefore, parents chose to continue their demand for tutoring out of bounded rationality as a strategy to assist their children’s education career. Some demands had turned to underground market because of limited supply under regulations, whose price went up but quality might be unsatisfactory. Finally, the paper concluded with implications for regulating private tutoring effectively with a focus on demand side.

Key words: “Double Reduction” policy, private supplementary tutoring, bounded rationality, demand, utility

刘钧燕. “双减”能消除学科类校外培训需求吗？——基于有限理性视角的实证研究[J]. 华东师范大学学报(教育科学版), 2023, 41(9): 71-84.

Junyan Liu. Can “Double Reduction” Policy Eliminate the Demand for Academic Private Tutoring: An Empirical Study from the Perspective of Bounded Rationality[J]. Journal of East China Normal University(Educational Sciences), 2023, 41(9): 71-84.

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分类		百分比	分类		百分比
年级	1年级	10.8	地区	省会城市	40.0
	2年级	10.0		地级市	10.9
	3年级	14.2		县级市	31.2
	4年级	14.6		乡村	17.9
	5年级	15.2	家长受教育程度	初中及以下	9.3
	6年级	8.0		高中或中专	15.9
	7年级	10.1		大专	20.9
	8年级	7.3		本科	39.2
	9年级	9.9		研究生	14.8
学校类型	公办	81.0	样本量	3633人
	民办	15.4
	国际	3.6

家长		占比（%）	卡方检验
总体		35.4	/
年级	1-3年级	34.4	.001^**
	4-6年级	36.7
	7-9年级	40.6
区域	省会城市	39.3	.000^***
	地级市	33.0
	县级市	29.6
	农村	22.5
家长受教育程度	初中及以下	19.3	.000^***
	高中或中专	23.4
	大专	28.9
	本科	44.0
	研究生	45.1
近半年的校外培训经历	学科类培训	39.2	.000^***
	非学科类培训	21.7
	学科类和非学科类培训	51.4
	没有校外培训	16.5

		继续或新增学科类培训班			秘密寻求学科类培训服务
		继续现有(%)	新报更多(%)	卡方检验	比例	卡方检验
总体		28.2	9.5	/	14.6	/
年级	1-3年级	28.1	10.7	.058	15.0	.209
	4-6年级	30.6	8.6		13.3
	7-9年级	31.3	9.1		15.8
区域	省会城市	31.8	10.4	.000^***	17.3	.000^***
	地级市	26.1	9.0		14.4
	县级市	22.1	9.6		11.1
	农村	21.8	5.4		6.3
家长受教育程度	初中及以下	11.3	5.0	.000^***	3.9	.000^***
家长受教育程度	高中或中专	20.2	5.4	.000^***	5.9	.000^***
家长受教育程度	大专	24.0	6.9	.000^***	9.0	.000^***
	本科	33.9	10.7		19.1
	研究生	38.4	17.2		26.9
近半年的校外培训经历	学科类培训	31.5	9.4	.000^***	18.0	.000^***
	非学科类培训	25.6	8.6		6.4
	学科类和非学科类培训	41.7	14.9		23.2
	没有校外培训	/	/		2.9

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