升职与生子可否兼得？——职业发展错失恐惧对高学历女性生育意愿的影响机制与破局之法

doi:10.16382/j.cnki.1000-5560.2026.04.008

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

在个体主义逐渐觉醒与高等教育高质量发展的背景下，助力高学历女性将职业发展与子女生育平衡兼顾，是新时代统筹推进教育强国建设与人口高质量发展面临的重要挑战。根据偏好理论与资源保存理论，构建高学历女性职业发展错失恐惧对其生育意愿影响的理论模型，使用“高学历女性生育意愿”问卷调查数据开展实证分析。研究发现，高学历女性非常重视个体的职业发展，职业发展错失恐惧对其生育意愿具有显著的负向影响；工作生活平衡感在高学历女性的职业发展错失恐惧对其生育意愿的负向影响中起中介作用；配偶用于子女照料支持的时长能够在高学历女性职业发展错失恐惧对其工作生活平衡感的负向影响中起缓冲作用，但代际支持的作用有限；职业发展错失恐惧对高学历女性生育意愿的消极影响在38岁及以下的群体中相当显著，但在38岁以上的群体中并不显著。基于以上研究发现，建议营造职业女性生育支持环境，平衡母亲职业发展与养育责任；构建父亲育儿激励政策体系，切实提高父亲育儿参与程度；强化优质托育支持网络，完善替代性养育机制。

关键词: 高学历女性, 女博士研究生, 职业发展错失恐惧, 生育意愿

Abstract:

Amidst rising individualism and the rapid expansion of higher education, effectively supporting highly-educated women in balancing career development and childbearing has emerged as a crucial challenge for advancing both the construction of a leading country of education and fostering high-quality population development. Grounded in preference theory and the conservation of resources theory, this study develops a theoretical framework to explore how workplace Fear of Missing Out (FoMO) influences fertility intentions among highly-educated women. Using empirical data from the “Highly Educated Women’s Fertility Intentions” survey, the analysis reveals that career development is a priority for these women, with workplace FoMO exerting a significant negative effect on their willingness to have more children. Furthermore, the study identifies work-life balance as a mediator in this relationship, while spousal involvement in childcare mitigates the negative impact of workplace FoMO on work-life balance. However, intergenerational support shows only a limited buffering effect. Workplace FoMO exerts a statistically significant negative impact on fertility intentions among highly educated women aged 38 and below, whereas no such effect is observed in women over 38. Based on these insights, the study recommends policies to foster a supportive environment for working women that balances career development with caregiving responsibilities, establish a policy system for father parenting incentives and effectively increase their participation in parenting, and optimize alternative caregiving mechanisms through strengthening high-quality institutional childcare support networks.

Key words: highly-educated women, female doctorate holders and candidates, workplace fear of missing out, fertility intention

赵平, 胡咏梅. 升职与生子可否兼得？——职业发展错失恐惧对高学历女性生育意愿的影响机制与破局之法[J]. 华东师范大学学报(教育科学版), 2026, 44(4): 91-105.

Ping Zhao, Yongmei Hu. Can Career Development and Childbearing Be Balanced? Exploring the Influence Mechanism and Possible Solutions to Workplace Fear of Missing Out on Highly-Educated Women's Fertility Intention[J]. Journal of East China Normal University(Educationa, 2026, 44(4): 91-105.

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变量名称	变量说明	均值	标准差
被解释变量
生育意愿	计划生育子女数	1.387	0.638
解释变量
职业发展错失恐惧	参考Budnick et al.（2020）编制的职业发展错失恐惧量表，问题为“当您因请假、休产假等原因暂时离开工作岗位时，您是否同意下列说法”，示例题目为“我总是在想我可能会错过职业发展机会”，1-“完全不同意”到5-“完全同意”	0.000	0.827
中介变量
工作生活平衡感	参考Brough et al. （2014）编制的工作生活平衡感量表，示例题目为“目前我可以很好地分配工作和生活时间，1-“完全不同意”到5-“完全同意”	0.000	0.770
调节变量
有无代际照护支持	提供代际支持的老人是否提供过与子女照护相关的劳动支持和经济支持：0-未提供相关支持，1-提供相关支持	0.932	0.252
配偶子女照料时间	配偶去年平均每天用于子女照料的小时数	2.479	1.935
控制变量
年龄	被访时的年龄	35.420	4.788
民族	是否少数民族：0-汉族，1-少数民族	0.083	0.276
独生属性	是否独生子女：0-非独生子女，1-独生子女	0.360	0.480
职业	1-教师，2-国家机关事业单位以及国有企业工作人员，3-其他	1.163	0.446
家庭月收入	家庭平均月收入（万元）	3.417	4.296

变量	模型(1)		模型(2)
变量	系数	发生率比	系数	发生率比
职业发展错失恐惧	−0.042**	0.959**	−0.038*	0.963*
	(0.021)	(0.020)	(0.021)	(0.020)
年龄			0.094*	1.099*
			(0.051)	(0.056)
年龄平方项			−0.001*	0.999*
			(0.001)	(0.001)
少数民族（否=0）			−0.120*	0.887*
			(0.062)	(0.055)
独生子女（否=0）			−0.070*	0.932*
			(0.036)	(0.034)
职业（参照组：教师）
国家机关事业单位企业工作人员			0.029	1.029
			(0.055)	(0.056)
其他职业			−0.138	0.871
			(0.121)	(0.106)
家庭月收入			0.007*	1.007*
			(0.004)	(0.004)
常数项	0.326***	1.386***	−1.444	0.236
	(0.017)	(0.023)	(0.921)	(0.217)
pseudo R²	0.001		0.004
N	747		747
皮尔逊拟合优度	217.659		213.095
P值	1.000		1.000

变量	模型(1)	模型(2)	模型(3)
变量	因变量：生育意愿	因变量：工作生活平衡感	因变量：生育意愿
职业发展错失恐惧	−0.038*	−0.185***	−0.023
	(0.021)	(0.038)	(0.021)
工作生活平衡感			0.078***
			(0.022)
控制变量	Yes	Yes	Yes
常数项	−1.444	5.323***	−1.861**
	(0.921)	(1.342)	(0.932)
R²/pseudo R²	0.004	0.076	0.006
N	747	747	747
皮尔逊拟合优度	213.095	−-	210.172
P值	1.000	−-	1.000

	模型(1)	模型(2)
职业发展错失恐惧	−0.404**	−0.314***
	(0.184)	(0.085)
有无代际照护支持	0.016
	(0.175)
有无代际照护支持*职业发展错失恐惧	0.252
	(0.191)
配偶子女照料时间		0.020
		(0.019)
配偶子女照料时间*职业发展错失恐惧		0.056**
		(0.028)
控制变量	Yes	Yes
常数项	7.582***	7.162***
	(2.323)	(2.339)
R²	0.079	0.089
N	443	443

变量	模型(1)		模型(2)
	38岁及以下		38岁以上
	系数	发生率比	系数	发生率比
职业发展错失恐惧	−0.059**	0.943	0.015	1.015
	(0.026)	(0.025)	(0.033)	(0.034)
控制变量	Yes		Yes
常数项	−0.131	0.877	1.143**	3.135**
	(0.248)	(0.218)	(0.513)	(1.608)
pseudo R²	0.004		0.009
N	534		213
皮尔逊拟合优度	157.433		52.199
P值	1.000		1.000