华东师范大学学报(教育科学版)

华东师范大学学报(教育科学版) ›› 2026, Vol. 44 ›› Issue (2): 32-42.doi: 10.16382/j.cnki.1000-5560.2026.02.002

• 拔尖创新人才 • 上一篇    下一篇

世界教育、科技、人才中心演变的一致性：基于20万名科学家的队列分析

刘骥1, 丘霖2   

  1. 1. 陕西师范大学教育学部，西安 710062
    2. 华东师范大学社会发展学院，上海 200241
  • 接受日期:2025-08-29 出版日期:2026-02-01 发布日期:2026-01-26

Evolutionary Conformity of World Education, Technology and Talent Centers: A Cohort Analysis of 200, 000 Scientists

Ji Liu1, Lin Qiu2   

  1. 1. Faculty of Education, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi’an 710062, China
    2. School of Social Development, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200241, China
  • Accepted:2025-08-29 Online:2026-02-01 Published:2026-01-26

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摘要：

科学家是推动世界教育、科技、人才中心演变的重要引擎。三大中心围绕科学家联动，与知识积累、科学家群体及其流动高度相关。构建204,643名科学家数据库，通过相关性分析、主成分分析、最小二乘回归分析与格兰杰因果分析发现，科学家位居三大中心的核心位置，并显著促进经济增长、教育发展与科技进步。通过队列分析与核密度估计发现，三大中心演变具有一致性。大科学时代的科学家培养应明确科学家的头雁地位、缩短科学家价值转化时间差、发挥国家选才育才的战略引领作用。

关键词: 大科学时代, 科学家, 三大中心, 人才培养

Abstract:

Scientists are critical drivers for the evolution of world centers of education, technology and talent. The evolution of the three major centers is positioned around scientists, showing high correlation with knowledge accumulation and scientists’ mobility. Constructing a database of 204,643 scientists on education, technology, and talent, through correlation analysis, principal component analysis, OLS regression analysis, and Granger causality analysis, it is found that scientists take center stage to the three major centers and significantly contribute to the development of economy, education and technology. Cohort analysis and Kernal density estimation analysis reveal that the evolution of three centers is consistent. Scientist cultivation in era of big science can focus on three aspects: clarifying the centrality of scientists in an epistemological sense, shortening the time lag between the transformation of scientists’ human capital and social value, and considering the national government a leading force in the identification and nurturing of scientists.

Key words: era of big science, scientists, three world major centers, talent cultivation